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KMSP / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 15 · 07:16 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
9%
EPS
8%
HRES
2%
AIFS
1%
WN2
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 5.1¢Risks 1.27u
VS
WN2NO 94.9¢Risks 23.72u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +23.72u · WN2 −23.72u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-09-13T07:52:53+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-09-13T10:08:23+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-09-13T10:53:31+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-09-13T11:38:39+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-09-13T12:23:45+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-09-13T13:08:49+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-09-13T13:53:55+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-09-13T14:39:25+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-09-13T15:24:31+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-09-13T16:09:36+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-09-13T16:54:43+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-09-13T18:25:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-09-13T19:55:10+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-09-13T21:25:20+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-09-13T22:55:29+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-09-14T00:25:40+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-14T04:11:11+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-14T07:56:54+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-14T10:57:26+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-14T12:27:39+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-09-14T13:57:49+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-09-14T14:43:30+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-09-14T15:28:39+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-09-14T16:13:51+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-09-14T16:58:57+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-09-14T17:44:02+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-09-14T18:29:11+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-09-14T19:14:15+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-14T19:59:21+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-14T20:44:27+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-14T21:29:32+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-14T22:14:37+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-14T22:59:42+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-14T23:44:51+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-15T00:29:57+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-15T01:15:04+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-09-15T02:00:10+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-09-15T06:30:59+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-09-15T07:16:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.4% · 2026-09-13T07:52:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.4% · 2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.4% · 2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.4% · 2026-09-13T10:08:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.4% · 2026-09-13T10:53:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.5% · 2026-09-13T11:38:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.5% · 2026-09-13T12:23:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.5% · 2026-09-13T13:08:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.5% · 2026-09-13T13:53:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.5% · 2026-09-13T14:39:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.5% · 2026-09-13T15:24:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.5% · 2026-09-13T16:09:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.5% · 2026-09-13T16:54:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.5% · 2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.5% · 2026-09-13T18:25:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.5% · 2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.5% · 2026-09-13T19:55:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.5% · 2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.5% · 2026-09-13T21:25:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.5% · 2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.2% · 2026-09-13T22:55:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.2% · 2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.2% · 2026-09-14T00:25:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.2% · 2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.2% · 2026-09-14T04:11:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.2% · 2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.2% · 2026-09-14T07:56:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.2% · 2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.2% · 2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.2% · 2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.2% · 2026-09-14T10:57:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.2% · 2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.2% · 2026-09-14T12:27:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.2% · 2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.2% · 2026-09-14T13:57:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.2% · 2026-09-14T14:43:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.5% · 2026-09-14T15:28:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.5% · 2026-09-14T16:13:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.5% · 2026-09-14T16:58:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.5% · 2026-09-14T17:44:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.5% · 2026-09-14T18:29:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.5% · 2026-09-14T19:14:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.5% · 2026-09-14T19:59:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.5% · 2026-09-14T20:44:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.5% · 2026-09-14T21:29:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.5% · 2026-09-14T22:14:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 8.3% · 2026-09-14T22:59:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 8.3% · 2026-09-14T23:44:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 8.3% · 2026-09-15T00:29:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 8.3% · 2026-09-15T01:15:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 8.3% · 2026-09-15T02:00:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 8.3% · 2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 8.3% · 2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 8.3% · 2026-09-15T06:30:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 8.3% · 2026-09-15T07:16:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.3% · 2026-09-13T07:52:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.3% · 2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.3% · 2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.3% · 2026-09-13T10:08:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.3% · 2026-09-13T10:53:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.1% · 2026-09-13T11:38:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.1% · 2026-09-13T12:23:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.1% · 2026-09-13T13:08:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.1% · 2026-09-13T13:53:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.1% · 2026-09-13T14:39:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.1% · 2026-09-13T15:24:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.1% · 2026-09-13T16:09:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.1% · 2026-09-13T16:54:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.8% · 2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.8% · 2026-09-13T18:25:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.8% · 2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.8% · 2026-09-13T19:55:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.8% · 2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.8% · 2026-09-13T21:25:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.8% · 2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.5% · 2026-09-13T22:55:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.5% · 2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.5% · 2026-09-14T00:25:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.5% · 2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.5% · 2026-09-14T04:11:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.5% · 2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-09-14T07:56:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-09-14T10:57:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-09-14T12:27:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-09-14T13:57:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-09-14T14:43:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-09-14T15:28:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-09-14T16:13:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-09-14T16:58:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.7% · 2026-09-14T17:44:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.7% · 2026-09-14T18:29:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.7% · 2026-09-14T19:14:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.7% · 2026-09-14T19:59:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.7% · 2026-09-14T20:44:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.7% · 2026-09-14T21:29:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.7% · 2026-09-14T22:14:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-09-14T22:59:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-09-14T23:44:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-09-15T00:29:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-09-15T01:15:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-09-15T02:00:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.0% · 2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.0% · 2026-09-15T06:30:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.0% · 2026-09-15T07:16:04+00:00IFS HRES: 1.1% · 2026-09-13T07:52:53+00:00IFS HRES: 1.1% · 2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00IFS HRES: 1.1% · 2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00IFS HRES: 1.1% · 2026-09-13T10:08:23+00:00IFS HRES: 1.1% · 2026-09-13T10:53:31+00:00IFS HRES: 1.1% · 2026-09-13T11:38:39+00:00IFS HRES: 1.1% · 2026-09-13T12:23:45+00:00IFS HRES: 1.1% · 2026-09-13T13:08:49+00:00IFS HRES: 1.1% · 2026-09-13T13:53:55+00:00IFS HRES: 1.1% · 2026-09-13T14:39:25+00:00IFS HRES: 1.1% · 2026-09-13T15:24:31+00:00IFS HRES: 1.1% · 2026-09-13T16:09:36+00:00IFS HRES: 1.1% · 2026-09-13T16:54:43+00:00IFS HRES: 1.1% · 2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00IFS HRES: 1.1% · 2026-09-13T18:25:00+00:00IFS HRES: 1.1% · 2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00IFS HRES: 0.5% · 2026-09-13T19:55:10+00:00IFS HRES: 0.5% · 2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00IFS HRES: 0.5% · 2026-09-13T21:25:20+00:00IFS HRES: 0.5% · 2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00IFS HRES: 0.5% · 2026-09-13T22:55:29+00:00IFS HRES: 0.5% · 2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00IFS HRES: 0.5% · 2026-09-14T00:25:40+00:00IFS HRES: 0.5% · 2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00IFS HRES: 0.5% · 2026-09-14T04:11:11+00:00IFS HRES: 0.5% · 2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:00IFS HRES: 2.0% · 2026-09-14T07:56:54+00:00IFS HRES: 2.0% · 2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00IFS HRES: 2.0% · 2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00IFS HRES: 2.0% · 2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00IFS HRES: 2.0% · 2026-09-14T10:57:26+00:00IFS HRES: 2.0% · 2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:00IFS HRES: 2.0% · 2026-09-14T12:27:39+00:00IFS HRES: 2.0% · 2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:00IFS HRES: 2.0% · 2026-09-14T13:57:49+00:00IFS HRES: 2.0% · 2026-09-14T14:43:30+00:00IFS HRES: 2.0% · 2026-09-14T15:28:39+00:00IFS HRES: 2.0% · 2026-09-14T16:13:51+00:00IFS HRES: 2.0% · 2026-09-14T16:58:57+00:00IFS HRES: 2.0% · 2026-09-14T17:44:02+00:00IFS HRES: 2.0% · 2026-09-14T18:29:11+00:00IFS HRES: 2.0% · 2026-09-14T19:14:15+00:00IFS HRES: 1.9% · 2026-09-14T19:59:21+00:00IFS HRES: 1.9% · 2026-09-14T20:44:27+00:00IFS HRES: 1.9% · 2026-09-14T21:29:32+00:00IFS HRES: 1.9% · 2026-09-14T22:14:37+00:00IFS HRES: 1.9% · 2026-09-14T22:59:42+00:00IFS HRES: 1.9% · 2026-09-14T23:44:51+00:00IFS HRES: 1.9% · 2026-09-15T00:29:57+00:00IFS HRES: 1.9% · 2026-09-15T01:15:04+00:00IFS HRES: 1.9% · 2026-09-15T02:00:10+00:00IFS HRES: 1.9% · 2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00IFS HRES: 1.9% · 2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00IFS HRES: 1.9% · 2026-09-15T06:30:59+00:00IFS HRES: 1.9% · 2026-09-15T07:16:04+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-09-13T07:52:53+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-09-13T10:08:23+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-09-13T10:53:31+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-09-13T11:38:39+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-09-13T12:23:45+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-09-13T13:08:49+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-09-13T13:53:55+00:00ICON: 10.1% · 2026-09-13T14:39:25+00:00ICON: 10.1% · 2026-09-13T15:24:31+00:00ICON: 10.1% · 2026-09-13T16:09:36+00:00ICON: 10.1% · 2026-09-13T16:54:43+00:00ICON: 10.1% · 2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00ICON: 10.1% · 2026-09-13T18:25:00+00:00ICON: 10.1% · 2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00ICON: 10.1% · 2026-09-13T19:55:10+00:00ICON: 10.1% · 2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00ICON: 10.1% · 2026-09-13T21:25:20+00:00ICON: 10.1% · 2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00ICON: 10.1% · 2026-09-13T22:55:29+00:00ICON: 10.1% · 2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00ICON: 10.1% · 2026-09-14T00:25:40+00:00ICON: 10.1% · 2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00ICON: 10.1% · 2026-09-14T04:11:11+00:00ICON: 10.1% · 2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-09-14T07:56:54+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-09-14T10:57:26+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-09-14T12:27:39+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-09-14T13:57:49+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-09-14T14:43:30+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-09-14T15:28:39+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-09-14T16:13:51+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-09-14T16:58:57+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-09-14T17:44:02+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-09-14T18:29:11+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-09-14T19:14:15+00:00ICON: 9.2% · 2026-09-14T19:59:21+00:00ICON: 9.2% · 2026-09-14T20:44:27+00:00ICON: 9.2% · 2026-09-14T21:29:32+00:00ICON: 9.2% · 2026-09-14T22:14:37+00:00ICON: 9.2% · 2026-09-14T22:59:42+00:00ICON: 9.2% · 2026-09-14T23:44:51+00:00ICON: 9.2% · 2026-09-15T00:29:57+00:00ICON: 9.2% · 2026-09-15T01:15:04+00:00ICON: 9.2% · 2026-09-15T02:00:10+00:00ICON: 9.2% · 2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00ICON: 9.2% · 2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00ICON: 9.2% · 2026-09-15T06:30:59+00:00ICON: 9.2% · 2026-09-15T07:16:04+00:0009-13 07:5209-14 08:4209-15 07:16
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-15T07:16:04+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-13T07:52:53+00:001.2%7.4%2.3%1.1%10.2%
2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:001.2%7.4%2.3%1.1%10.2%
2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:001.2%7.4%2.3%1.1%10.2%
2026-09-13T10:08:23+00:001.2%7.4%2.3%1.1%10.2%
2026-09-13T10:53:31+00:001.2%7.4%2.3%1.1%10.2%
2026-09-13T11:38:39+00:001.2%6.5%4.1%1.1%10.2%
2026-09-13T12:23:45+00:001.2%6.5%4.1%1.1%10.2%
2026-09-13T13:08:49+00:001.2%6.5%4.1%1.1%10.2%
2026-09-13T13:53:55+00:004.3%6.5%4.1%1.1%10.2%
2026-09-13T14:39:25+00:004.3%6.5%4.1%1.1%10.1%
2026-09-13T15:24:31+00:004.3%6.5%4.1%1.1%10.1%
2026-09-13T16:09:36+00:004.3%6.5%4.1%1.1%10.1%
2026-09-13T16:54:43+00:004.3%6.5%4.1%1.1%10.1%
2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:004.3%6.5%1.8%1.1%10.1%
2026-09-13T18:25:00+00:004.3%6.5%1.8%1.1%10.1%
2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:004.3%6.5%1.8%1.1%10.1%
2026-09-13T19:55:10+00:001.4%6.5%1.8%0.5%10.1%
2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:001.4%6.5%1.8%0.5%10.1%
2026-09-13T21:25:20+00:001.4%6.5%1.8%0.5%10.1%
2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:001.4%6.5%1.8%0.5%10.1%
2026-09-13T22:55:29+00:001.4%6.2%2.5%0.5%10.1%
2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:001.4%6.2%2.5%0.5%10.1%
2026-09-14T00:25:40+00:001.4%6.2%2.5%0.5%10.1%
2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:001.4%6.2%2.5%0.5%10.1%
2026-09-14T04:11:11+00:000.7%6.2%2.5%0.5%10.1%
2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:000.7%6.2%2.5%0.5%10.1%
2026-09-14T07:56:54+00:000.3%6.2%2.2%2.0%3.9%
2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:000.3%6.2%2.2%2.0%3.9%
2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:000.3%6.2%2.2%2.0%3.9%
2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:000.3%6.2%2.2%2.0%3.9%
2026-09-14T10:57:26+00:000.3%9.2%2.2%2.0%3.9%
2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:000.3%9.2%2.2%2.0%3.9%
2026-09-14T12:27:39+00:000.3%9.2%2.2%2.0%3.9%
2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:000.3%9.2%2.2%2.0%3.9%
2026-09-14T13:57:49+00:001.0%9.2%2.2%2.0%3.9%
2026-09-14T14:43:30+00:001.0%9.2%2.2%2.0%4.0%
2026-09-14T15:28:39+00:001.0%9.5%2.2%2.0%4.0%
2026-09-14T16:13:51+00:001.0%9.5%2.2%2.0%4.0%
2026-09-14T16:58:57+00:001.0%9.5%2.2%2.0%4.0%
2026-09-14T17:44:02+00:001.0%9.5%0.7%2.0%4.0%
2026-09-14T18:29:11+00:001.0%9.5%0.7%2.0%4.0%
2026-09-14T19:14:15+00:001.0%9.5%0.7%2.0%4.0%
2026-09-14T19:59:21+00:000.6%9.5%0.7%1.9%9.2%
2026-09-14T20:44:27+00:000.6%9.5%0.7%1.9%9.2%
2026-09-14T21:29:32+00:000.6%9.5%0.7%1.9%9.2%
2026-09-14T22:14:37+00:000.6%9.5%0.7%1.9%9.2%
2026-09-14T22:59:42+00:000.6%8.3%0.5%1.9%9.2%
2026-09-14T23:44:51+00:000.6%8.3%0.5%1.9%9.2%
2026-09-15T00:29:57+00:000.6%8.3%0.5%1.9%9.2%
2026-09-15T01:15:04+00:000.6%8.3%0.5%1.9%9.2%
2026-09-15T02:00:10+00:001.4%8.3%0.5%1.9%9.2%
2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:001.4%8.3%0.5%1.9%9.2%
2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:001.4%8.3%1.0%1.9%9.2%
2026-09-15T06:30:59+00:001.4%8.3%1.0%1.9%9.2%
2026-09-15T07:16:04+00:001.4%8.3%1.0%1.9%9.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON9%72.5°F6.8°F2026-09-14 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble8%74.3°F5.2°F2026-09-14 00:00Pending
National Blend3%71.6°F5.3°F2026-09-15 00:00Pending
NWS forecast2%71.0°F5.1°F2026-09-15 03:00Pending
IFS HRES2%67.7°F6.6°F2026-09-14 12:00Pending
AIFS Single1%69.8°F5.3°F2026-09-14 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 21%71.1°F4.5°F2026-09-14 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260920-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 13 · 07:52 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗