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KMSP / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 15 · 07:16 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
9%
EPS
8%
HRES
2%
AIFS
1%
WN2
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 5.1¢Risks 1.27u
VS
WN2NO 94.9¢Risks 23.72u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +23.72u · WN2 −23.72u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.4% · 2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.6% · 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.6% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.6% · 2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 36.8% · 2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.6% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.9% · 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.3% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.3% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.4% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.7% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.4% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.6% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.7% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.6% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.7% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 2.5% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.9% · 2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.7% · 2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.0% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.2% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.5% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.3% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:0009-05 12:0009-13 06:0009-20 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.1%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:003.1%————3.9%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:000.9%—————
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:000.8%————2.7%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:0034.9%—————
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:000.0%————1.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:0035.4%—————
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:001.1%————3.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:004.7%—————
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:000.3%————2.2%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:000.3%—————
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:003.7%————0.9%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:0010.8%—————
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:003.5%————2.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:004.3%————2.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:0010.6%—————
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:0021.6%————5.5%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:0019.6%—————
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:004.2%———2.5%2.9%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:002.4%—————
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:003.6%————2.1%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:000.3%—7.6%———
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:002.1%————2.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:000.4%————2.8%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:000.6%—36.8%———
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:001.9%—9.6%——1.8%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:001.0%—30.9%———
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:000.2%—1.3%——2.3%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:000.8%—0.5%———
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:000.1%——0.0%—1.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:000.1%—0.1%———
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%1.4%—1.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:000.1%—0.5%———
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:000.0%——2.7%—0.4%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:000.1%—2.3%———
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.0%2.4%—0.2%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:000.1%—0.0%———
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:000.4%0.3%0.0%1.6%—0.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:000.2%0.0%0.0%———
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%1.7%—0.1%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.4%——0.0%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.8%1.6%—0.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.0%——0.0%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:000.0%1.6%0.4%0.7%—0.1%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%0.2%———
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.5%0.3%0.4%—0.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.3%0.1%——0.0%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%—0.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%—0.0%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON9%72.5°F6.8°F2026-09-14 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble8%74.3°F5.2°F2026-09-14 00:00Pending
National Blend3%71.6°F5.3°F2026-09-15 00:00Pending
NWS forecast2%71.0°F5.1°F2026-09-15 03:00Pending
IFS HRES2%67.7°F6.6°F2026-09-14 12:00Pending
AIFS Single1%69.8°F5.3°F2026-09-14 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 21%71.1°F4.5°F2026-09-14 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260920-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 13 · 07:52 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗