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KMSP / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Sep 21 · 10:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
>99%
WN2
98%
AIFS
90%
HRES
64%
ICON
14%
Consensus
89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 57.0¢Risks 57.00u
VS
ICONNO 43.0¢Risks 43.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +43.00u · ICON −43.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 82.4% · 2026-09-21T03:20:48+00:00AIFS Single: 82.4% · 2026-09-21T04:06:01+00:00AIFS Single: 82.4% · 2026-09-21T04:51:11+00:00AIFS Single: 82.4% · 2026-09-21T05:36:18+00:00AIFS Single: 82.4% · 2026-09-21T06:21:23+00:00AIFS Single: 82.4% · 2026-09-21T07:06:31+00:00AIFS Single: 89.9% · 2026-09-21T07:51:36+00:00AIFS Single: 89.9% · 2026-09-21T08:36:41+00:00AIFS Single: 89.9% · 2026-09-21T09:21:46+00:00AIFS Single: 89.9% · 2026-09-21T10:06:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T03:20:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T04:06:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T04:51:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T05:36:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T06:21:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T07:06:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T07:51:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T08:36:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T09:21:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T10:06:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-09-21T03:20:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-09-21T04:06:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-09-21T04:51:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-09-21T05:36:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-09-21T06:21:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-09-21T07:06:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-09-21T07:51:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-09-21T08:36:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-09-21T09:21:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-09-21T10:06:50+00:00IFS HRES: 63.6% · 2026-09-21T03:20:48+00:00IFS HRES: 63.6% · 2026-09-21T04:06:01+00:00IFS HRES: 63.6% · 2026-09-21T04:51:11+00:00IFS HRES: 63.6% · 2026-09-21T05:36:18+00:00IFS HRES: 63.6% · 2026-09-21T06:21:23+00:00IFS HRES: 63.6% · 2026-09-21T07:06:31+00:00IFS HRES: 63.6% · 2026-09-21T07:51:36+00:00IFS HRES: 63.6% · 2026-09-21T08:36:41+00:00IFS HRES: 63.6% · 2026-09-21T09:21:46+00:00IFS HRES: 63.6% · 2026-09-21T10:06:50+00:00ICON: 66.4% · 2026-09-21T03:20:48+00:00ICON: 66.4% · 2026-09-21T04:06:01+00:00ICON: 14.0% · 2026-09-21T04:51:11+00:00ICON: 14.0% · 2026-09-21T05:36:18+00:00ICON: 14.0% · 2026-09-21T06:21:23+00:00ICON: 14.0% · 2026-09-21T07:06:31+00:00ICON: 14.0% · 2026-09-21T07:51:36+00:00ICON: 14.0% · 2026-09-21T08:36:41+00:00ICON: 14.0% · 2026-09-21T09:21:46+00:00ICON: 14.0% · 2026-09-21T10:06:50+00:0009-21 03:2009-21 07:0609-21 10:06
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-21T10:06:50+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-21T03:20:48+00:0082.4%100.0%98.3%63.6%66.4%
2026-09-21T04:06:01+00:0082.4%100.0%98.3%63.6%66.4%
2026-09-21T04:51:11+00:0082.4%100.0%98.3%63.6%14.0%
2026-09-21T05:36:18+00:0082.4%100.0%98.3%63.6%14.0%
2026-09-21T06:21:23+00:0082.4%100.0%98.3%63.6%14.0%
2026-09-21T07:06:31+00:0082.4%100.0%98.3%63.6%14.0%
2026-09-21T07:51:36+00:0089.9%100.0%98.3%63.6%14.0%
2026-09-21T08:36:41+00:0089.9%100.0%98.3%63.6%14.0%
2026-09-21T09:21:46+00:0089.9%100.0%98.3%63.6%14.0%
2026-09-21T10:06:50+00:0089.9%100.0%98.3%63.6%14.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble>99%68.8°F3.0°F2026-09-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 298%66.8°F3.9°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending
AIFS Single90%62.4°F3.0°F2026-09-21 00:00Pending
National Blend79%62.0°F4.4°F2026-09-21 00:00Pending
IFS HRES64%59.8°F3.8°F2026-09-20 12:00Pending
NWS forecast59%59.0°F2.2°F2026-09-21 02:00Pending
ICON14%54.8°F3.4°F2026-09-21 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260921-TMAX-GE59
Opened Sep 21 · 03:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 59°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗