KMSP / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Sep 21 · 10:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

90%

64%

14%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 57.0¢Risks 57.00u

ICONNO 43.0¢Risks 43.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +43.00u · ICON −43.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	89.7%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	87.4%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	98.3%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	—	—	—	93.6%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	91.4%	—	—	—	—	90.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	83.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	82.9%	—	—	—	—	90.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	85.3%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	92.3%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	—	—	—	—	96.1%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	95.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	96.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	—	—	—	97.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	58.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	55.4%	—	—	94.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	75.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	78.6%	—	—	89.5%	—	94.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	95.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	27.9%	99.2%	—	94.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	62.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	77.8%	63.5%	98.1%	—	90.7%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.8%	54.0%	20.6%	94.5%	—	90.7%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	53.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	82.2%	49.2%	97.9%	—	83.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	81.0%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	99.2%	71.6%	96.8%	—	86.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	94.3%	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	96.2%	89.4%	97.0%	—	88.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	73.2%	55.7%	—	—	82.9%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	51.9%	94.9%	49.0%	93.2%	—	84.7%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	80.3%	83.0%	—	—	79.6%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	98.6%	98.8%	98.8%	—	80.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	98.6%	98.6%	—	—	76.3%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	96.9%	97.6%	92.3%	89.6%	73.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	35.7%	94.3%	82.5%	34.6%	—	75.1%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	92.0%	94.9%	65.9%	75.8%	73.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	33.6%	95.7%	54.8%	92.6%	—	68.5%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	74.4%	55.0%	92.9%	—	70.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	46.1%	38.5%	74.1%	—	63.9%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	40.7%	83.5%	22.0%	76.0%	74.9%	60.6%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	74.7%	16.4%	45.8%	—	51.4%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	45.7%	30.5%	20.2%	76.6%	57.2%	66.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	16.2%	35.2%	67.5%	—	53.0%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	25.0%	10.2%	89.0%	82.9%	93.4%	36.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	38.6%	33.9%	92.7%	92.7%	—	59.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	68.8°F	3.0°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	98%	66.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	62.4°F	3.0°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
National Blend	79%	62.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	59.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-20 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	59.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-21 02:00	Pending
ICON	14%	54.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260921-TMAX-GE59
Opened Sep 21 · 03:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 59°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗