KMSP / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Sep 21 · 02:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

91%

58%

34%

32%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 65.8¢Risks 65.85u

HRESNO 34.2¢Risks 34.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +34.15u · HRES −34.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	—	—	—	81.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	26.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	—	—	—	84.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	75.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	—	—	—	89.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	56.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	—	—	—	91.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	92.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	35.5%	—	—	85.7%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	56.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	—	76.5%	—	86.3%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	88.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	12.8%	96.7%	—	85.2%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	57.6%	40.9%	93.2%	—	77.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	28.1%	30.9%	7.8%	84.1%	—	76.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	29.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	61.5%	25.8%	92.0%	—	63.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	59.3%	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	28.4%	96.1%	46.5%	88.2%	—	67.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	81.6%	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	86.1%	71.0%	88.1%	—	68.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	46.2%	28.4%	—	—	59.4%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	81.7%	22.5%	77.5%	—	61.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	54.0%	58.0%	—	—	53.0%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	92.2%	92.9%	93.3%	—	53.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	92.0%	92.0%	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	85.1%	87.5%	72.7%	66.9%	42.4%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	76.9%	53.4%	10.7%	—	43.3%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	70.0%	77.6%	32.0%	43.0%	39.6%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	79.2%	21.6%	70.7%	—	33.6%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	38.9%	20.8%	70.2%	—	34.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	14.3%	10.3%	37.3%	—	26.9%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	48.7%	3.7%	38.1%	36.8%	23.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	35.0%	2.1%	12.4%	—	15.6%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	5.5%	2.7%	35.8%	18.2%	25.6%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	1.7%	6.5%	24.8%	—	14.4%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	0.7%	51.6%	40.6%	62.4%	6.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	4.9%	58.2%	58.2%	—	16.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	68.8°F	3.0°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	91%	66.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	62%	63.0°F	4.7°F	2026-09-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	62.3°F	4.1°F	2026-09-20 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-20 14:00	Pending
ICON	34%	60.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-20 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	59.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-20 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260921-TMAX-GE62
Opened Sep 20 · 15:18 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 62°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗