KMSP / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Sep 21 · 02:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

91%

58%

34%

32%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 65.8¢Risks 65.85u

HRESNO 34.2¢Risks 34.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +34.15u · HRES −34.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T02:35:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-20T15:18:51+00:00	47.1%	99.7%	91.2%	23.6%	25.8%
2026-09-20T16:04:07+00:00	47.1%	99.7%	91.2%	23.6%	25.8%
2026-09-20T16:49:13+00:00	47.1%	99.7%	91.2%	23.6%	33.6%
2026-09-20T17:34:18+00:00	47.1%	99.7%	91.2%	23.6%	33.6%
2026-09-20T18:19:23+00:00	47.1%	99.7%	91.2%	23.6%	33.6%
2026-09-20T19:04:31+00:00	47.1%	99.7%	91.2%	23.6%	33.6%
2026-09-20T19:49:36+00:00	53.9%	99.7%	91.2%	23.6%	33.6%
2026-09-20T20:34:42+00:00	53.9%	99.7%	91.2%	23.6%	33.6%
2026-09-20T21:19:46+00:00	53.9%	99.7%	91.2%	23.6%	33.6%
2026-09-20T22:04:50+00:00	53.9%	99.7%	91.2%	23.6%	33.6%
2026-09-20T22:49:59+00:00	53.9%	99.7%	91.2%	32.5%	33.6%
2026-09-20T23:35:05+00:00	53.9%	99.2%	91.2%	32.5%	33.6%
2026-09-21T00:20:13+00:00	53.9%	99.2%	91.2%	32.5%	33.6%
2026-09-21T01:05:24+00:00	53.9%	99.2%	91.2%	32.5%	33.6%
2026-09-21T01:50:30+00:00	57.8%	99.2%	91.2%	32.5%	33.6%
2026-09-21T02:35:35+00:00	57.8%	99.2%	91.2%	32.5%	33.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	68.8°F	3.0°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	91%	66.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	62%	63.0°F	4.7°F	2026-09-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	62.3°F	4.1°F	2026-09-20 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-20 14:00	Pending
ICON	34%	60.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-20 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	59.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-20 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260921-TMAX-GE62
Opened Sep 20 · 15:18 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 62°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗