KMSP / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Sep 20 · 02:29 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

63%

23%

18%

16%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 55.2¢Risks 55.25u

AIFSNO 44.8¢Risks 44.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.75u · AIFS −44.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	66.6%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	63.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	—	—	—	76.9%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	—	—	—	73.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	82.4%	—	—	—	—	76.1%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	77.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	14.7%	—	—	65.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	50.7%	—	65.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	3.1%	86.5%	—	62.3%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	28.3%	16.0%	76.6%	—	49.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	9.7%	1.3%	57.9%	—	46.8%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	8.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	29.3%	6.9%	71.4%	—	31.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	26.7%	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	81.0%	16.7%	62.1%	—	33.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	50.0%	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	56.4%	35.6%	60.0%	—	33.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	14.8%	6.4%	—	—	23.8%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	47.1%	4.2%	41.3%	—	24.7%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	18.3%	21.1%	—	—	17.7%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	65.1%	67.0%	67.9%	—	17.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	63.5%	63.5%	—	—	12.7%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	47.8%	52.2%	31.1%	25.5%	9.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	34.6%	14.8%	0.9%	—	9.7%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	26.0%	34.1%	5.1%	9.0%	7.6%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	34.7%	2.3%	25.3%	—	5.1%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	6.3%	2.0%	23.6%	—	4.9%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.9%	0.5%	5.3%	—	2.8%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	8.4%	0.1%	5.0%	4.6%	1.9%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	3.7%	0.0%	0.5%	—	0.8%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	3.5%	0.9%	1.8%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	1.4%	—	0.5%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	6.1%	3.4%	10.2%	0.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	7.3%	7.3%	—	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	95%	69.9°F	2.7°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	66.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	66.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	23%	62.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	61.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	61.3°F	4.2°F	2026-09-19 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260921-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 17 · 03:42 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗