KMSP / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Sep 20 · 02:29 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

63%

23%

18%

16%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 55.2¢Risks 55.25u

AIFSNO 44.8¢Risks 44.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.75u · AIFS −44.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-20T02:29:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-17T03:42:33+00:00	11.0%	94.2%	60.5%	41.9%	48.0%
2026-09-17T04:27:41+00:00	11.0%	94.2%	60.5%	41.9%	48.0%
2026-09-17T05:12:47+00:00	11.0%	94.2%	70.2%	41.9%	87.3%
2026-09-17T05:57:53+00:00	11.0%	94.2%	70.2%	41.9%	87.3%
2026-09-17T06:43:01+00:00	11.0%	94.2%	70.2%	41.9%	87.3%
2026-09-17T07:28:06+00:00	11.0%	94.2%	70.2%	41.9%	87.3%
2026-09-17T08:13:11+00:00	31.2%	94.2%	70.2%	41.9%	87.3%
2026-09-17T08:58:15+00:00	31.2%	94.2%	70.2%	41.9%	87.3%
2026-09-17T09:43:24+00:00	31.2%	94.2%	70.2%	41.9%	87.3%
2026-09-17T10:28:40+00:00	31.2%	94.2%	70.2%	62.4%	87.3%
2026-09-17T11:14:05+00:00	31.2%	97.3%	73.1%	62.4%	87.3%
2026-09-17T11:59:13+00:00	31.2%	97.3%	73.1%	62.4%	87.3%
2026-09-17T12:44:17+00:00	31.2%	97.3%	73.1%	62.4%	87.3%
2026-09-17T13:29:23+00:00	31.2%	97.3%	73.1%	62.4%	87.3%
2026-09-17T14:15:36+00:00	50.9%	97.3%	73.1%	62.4%	87.3%
2026-09-19T03:08:57+00:00	25.5%	99.1%	63.1%	38.7%	69.6%
2026-09-19T03:54:14+00:00	25.5%	99.1%	63.1%	38.7%	69.6%
2026-09-19T04:39:19+00:00	25.5%	99.1%	63.1%	38.7%	42.1%
2026-09-19T05:24:24+00:00	25.5%	99.1%	63.1%	38.7%	42.1%
2026-09-19T06:09:29+00:00	25.5%	99.1%	63.1%	38.7%	42.1%
2026-09-19T06:54:38+00:00	25.5%	99.1%	63.1%	38.7%	42.1%
2026-09-19T07:39:57+00:00	14.3%	99.1%	63.1%	21.3%	42.1%
2026-09-19T08:25:27+00:00	14.3%	99.1%	63.1%	21.3%	42.1%
2026-09-19T09:10:36+00:00	14.3%	99.1%	63.1%	21.3%	42.1%
2026-09-19T09:55:41+00:00	14.3%	99.1%	63.1%	21.3%	42.1%
2026-09-19T10:40:47+00:00	14.3%	99.1%	63.1%	21.3%	42.1%
2026-09-19T11:25:55+00:00	14.3%	97.4%	63.1%	21.3%	42.1%
2026-09-19T12:11:04+00:00	14.3%	97.4%	63.1%	21.3%	42.1%
2026-09-19T12:56:09+00:00	14.3%	97.4%	63.1%	21.3%	42.1%
2026-09-19T13:41:15+00:00	16.5%	97.4%	63.1%	21.3%	42.1%
2026-09-19T14:27:50+00:00	16.5%	97.4%	63.1%	21.2%	43.2%
2026-09-19T15:13:02+00:00	16.5%	97.8%	63.1%	21.2%	43.2%
2026-09-19T15:58:14+00:00	16.5%	97.8%	63.1%	21.2%	43.2%
2026-09-19T16:43:19+00:00	16.5%	97.8%	63.1%	21.2%	23.0%
2026-09-19T17:28:25+00:00	16.5%	97.8%	63.1%	21.2%	23.0%
2026-09-19T18:13:29+00:00	16.5%	97.8%	63.1%	21.2%	23.0%
2026-09-19T18:58:39+00:00	16.5%	97.8%	63.1%	21.2%	23.0%
2026-09-19T19:43:43+00:00	13.2%	97.8%	63.1%	17.9%	23.0%
2026-09-19T20:28:48+00:00	13.2%	97.8%	63.1%	17.9%	23.0%
2026-09-19T21:13:53+00:00	13.2%	97.8%	63.1%	17.9%	23.0%
2026-09-19T21:58:58+00:00	13.2%	97.8%	63.1%	17.9%	23.0%
2026-09-19T22:44:03+00:00	13.2%	97.8%	63.1%	17.9%	23.0%
2026-09-19T23:29:09+00:00	13.2%	94.6%	63.1%	17.9%	23.0%
2026-09-20T00:14:14+00:00	13.2%	94.6%	63.1%	17.9%	23.0%
2026-09-20T00:59:23+00:00	13.2%	94.6%	63.1%	17.9%	23.0%
2026-09-20T01:44:31+00:00	15.9%	94.6%	63.1%	17.9%	23.0%
2026-09-20T02:29:38+00:00	15.9%	94.6%	63.1%	17.9%	23.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	95%	69.9°F	2.7°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	66.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	66.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	23%	62.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	61.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	61.3°F	4.2°F	2026-09-19 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260921-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 17 · 03:42 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗