KMSP / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Sep 16 · 02:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

31%

22%

19%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 17.6¢Risks 17.60u

HRESNO 82.4¢Risks 82.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +82.40u · HRES −82.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	28.4%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	34.7%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	1.3%	—	—	21.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	11.2%	—	19.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	0.1%	42.7%	—	16.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.8%	1.0%	27.0%	—	8.7%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.4%	0.0%	11.5%	—	6.9%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.2%	0.2%	18.4%	—	2.6%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.7%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	25.5%	0.6%	10.9%	—	2.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	5.7%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	7.3%	2.3%	8.6%	—	2.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.8%	0.0%	2.7%	—	0.8%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.5%	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	7.8%	8.6%	9.0%	—	0.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.5%	6.5%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.4%	3.1%	0.8%	0.5%	0.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.6%	0.0%	0.3%	—	0.0%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	—	0.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-15 15:00	Pending
National Blend	43%	71.5°F	6.0°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	31%	70.7°F	3.6°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	69.1°F	4.5°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	19%	66.5°F	6.8°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	63.8°F	5.3°F	2026-09-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	61.1°F	6.6°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260921-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 14 · 10:57 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗