KMSP / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Sep 22 · 01:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

38%

37%

21%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 20.6¢Risks 20.55u

ICONNO 79.5¢Risks 79.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +79.45u · ICON −79.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	76.1%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	—	—	—	75.7%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	79.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	76.7%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	73.7%	—	8.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	77.0%	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	86.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	65.2%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	18.9%	—	—	66.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	68.9%	11.9%	—	55.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	6.9%	15.6%	73.4%	—	53.6%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	65.6%	9.0%	79.5%	—	33.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	35.9%	37.5%	61.0%	—	34.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	36.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	23.8%	47.5%	60.7%	—	23.8%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	21.4%	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	47.4%	66.2%	51.7%	—	23.4%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	50.0%	35.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	46.3%	71.0%	42.7%	—	20.9%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.3%	50.9%	62.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	43.2%	73.7%	39.4%	—	19.7%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	24.1%	59.9%	—	—	18.3%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	21.2%	63.1%	30.3%	—	18.3%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	11.1%	52.1%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	13.7%	58.7%	29.2%	—	16.9%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	6.3%	56.7%	1.5%	—	14.8%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	4.5%	54.6%	22.4%	0.0%	13.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	4.3%	57.2%	16.7%	—	15.2%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	2.3%	57.4%	19.9%	43.8%	15.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	2.1%	55.1%	13.5%	—	11.5%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	1.7%	58.0%	13.4%	44.6%	7.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	4.0%	55.6%	15.6%	—	6.7%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	3.5%	51.4%	10.8%	44.2%	11.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	5.1%	53.0%	8.6%	—	9.9%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	6.1%	69.7%	10.2%	37.6%	9.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	28.1%	63.0%	24.1%	—	20.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-21 14:00	Pending
National Blend	43%	65.0°F	2.9°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	64.4°F	4.2°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	64.3°F	4.1°F	2026-09-21 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	64.5°F	3.0°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	62.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-21 12:00	Pending
ICON	2%	57.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-21 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260922-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 17 · 15:00 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗