KMSP / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Sep 22 · 01:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

38%

37%

21%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 20.6¢Risks 20.55u

ICONNO 79.5¢Risks 79.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +79.45u · ICON −79.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-22T01:57:13+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-17T15:00:50+00:00	50.0%	81.7%	58.6%	36.6%	53.4%
2026-09-17T15:46:03+00:00	50.0%	82.5%	58.6%	36.6%	53.4%
2026-09-17T16:31:12+00:00	50.0%	82.5%	58.6%	36.6%	42.6%
2026-09-17T17:16:20+00:00	50.0%	82.5%	45.2%	36.6%	42.6%
2026-09-17T18:01:25+00:00	50.0%	82.5%	45.2%	36.6%	42.6%
2026-09-17T18:46:34+00:00	50.0%	82.5%	45.2%	36.6%	42.6%
2026-09-17T19:31:39+00:00	41.2%	82.5%	45.2%	36.6%	42.6%
2026-09-17T20:16:44+00:00	41.2%	82.5%	45.2%	36.6%	42.6%
2026-09-17T21:01:49+00:00	41.2%	82.5%	45.2%	36.6%	42.6%
2026-09-17T21:46:54+00:00	41.2%	82.5%	45.2%	36.6%	42.6%
2026-09-17T22:31:59+00:00	41.2%	82.5%	45.2%	32.8%	42.6%
2026-09-17T23:17:05+00:00	41.2%	84.1%	39.5%	32.8%	42.6%
2026-09-18T00:02:10+00:00	41.2%	84.1%	39.5%	32.8%	42.6%
2026-09-18T00:47:17+00:00	41.2%	84.1%	39.5%	32.8%	42.6%
2026-09-18T01:32:23+00:00	42.0%	84.1%	39.5%	32.8%	42.6%
2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:00	42.0%	84.1%	39.5%	32.8%	42.6%
2026-09-19T03:08:57+00:00	39.9%	83.1%	39.5%	29.7%	58.4%
2026-09-19T03:54:14+00:00	39.9%	83.1%	39.5%	29.7%	58.4%
2026-09-19T04:39:19+00:00	39.9%	83.1%	39.5%	29.7%	47.9%
2026-09-19T05:24:24+00:00	39.9%	83.1%	39.5%	29.7%	47.9%
2026-09-19T06:09:29+00:00	39.9%	83.1%	39.5%	29.7%	47.9%
2026-09-19T06:54:38+00:00	39.9%	83.1%	39.5%	29.7%	47.9%
2026-09-19T07:39:57+00:00	33.3%	83.1%	39.5%	37.0%	47.9%
2026-09-19T08:25:27+00:00	33.3%	83.1%	39.5%	37.0%	47.9%
2026-09-19T09:10:36+00:00	33.3%	83.1%	39.5%	37.0%	47.9%
2026-09-19T09:55:41+00:00	33.3%	83.1%	39.5%	37.0%	47.9%
2026-09-19T10:40:47+00:00	33.3%	83.1%	39.5%	37.0%	47.9%
2026-09-19T11:25:55+00:00	33.3%	75.4%	39.5%	37.0%	47.9%
2026-09-19T12:11:04+00:00	33.3%	75.4%	39.5%	37.0%	47.9%
2026-09-19T12:56:09+00:00	33.3%	75.4%	39.5%	37.0%	47.9%
2026-09-19T13:41:15+00:00	34.2%	75.4%	39.5%	37.0%	47.9%
2026-09-19T14:27:50+00:00	34.1%	75.4%	39.5%	37.0%	47.9%
2026-09-19T15:13:02+00:00	34.1%	75.4%	39.5%	37.0%	47.9%
2026-09-19T15:58:14+00:00	34.1%	75.4%	39.5%	37.0%	47.9%
2026-09-19T16:43:19+00:00	34.1%	75.4%	39.5%	37.0%	25.2%
2026-09-19T17:28:25+00:00	34.1%	75.4%	39.5%	37.0%	25.2%
2026-09-19T18:13:29+00:00	34.1%	75.4%	39.5%	37.0%	25.2%
2026-09-19T18:58:39+00:00	34.1%	75.4%	39.5%	37.0%	25.2%
2026-09-19T19:43:43+00:00	30.1%	75.4%	39.5%	26.1%	25.2%
2026-09-19T20:28:48+00:00	30.1%	75.4%	39.5%	26.1%	25.2%
2026-09-19T21:13:53+00:00	30.1%	75.4%	39.5%	26.1%	25.2%
2026-09-19T21:58:58+00:00	30.1%	75.4%	39.5%	26.1%	25.2%
2026-09-19T22:44:03+00:00	30.1%	75.4%	39.5%	26.1%	25.2%
2026-09-19T23:29:09+00:00	30.1%	61.3%	39.5%	26.1%	25.1%
2026-09-20T00:14:14+00:00	30.1%	61.3%	39.5%	26.1%	25.1%
2026-09-20T00:59:23+00:00	30.1%	61.3%	39.5%	26.1%	25.1%
2026-09-20T01:44:31+00:00	30.9%	61.3%	39.5%	26.1%	25.1%
2026-09-20T02:29:38+00:00	30.9%	61.3%	39.5%	26.1%	25.1%
2026-09-20T03:14:49+00:00	30.9%	61.3%	39.5%	26.1%	25.1%
2026-09-20T04:00:04+00:00	30.9%	61.3%	39.5%	26.1%	25.1%
2026-09-20T04:45:09+00:00	30.9%	61.3%	39.5%	26.1%	10.6%
2026-09-20T05:30:15+00:00	30.9%	61.3%	39.5%	26.1%	10.6%
2026-09-20T06:15:20+00:00	30.9%	61.3%	39.5%	26.1%	10.6%
2026-09-20T07:00:27+00:00	30.9%	61.3%	39.5%	26.1%	10.6%
2026-09-20T07:45:47+00:00	31.7%	61.3%	39.5%	36.7%	10.6%
2026-09-20T08:31:13+00:00	31.7%	61.3%	39.5%	36.7%	10.6%
2026-09-20T09:16:18+00:00	31.7%	61.3%	39.5%	36.7%	10.6%
2026-09-20T10:01:22+00:00	31.7%	61.3%	39.5%	36.7%	10.6%
2026-09-20T10:46:27+00:00	31.7%	61.3%	39.5%	36.7%	10.6%
2026-09-20T11:31:35+00:00	31.7%	57.8%	39.5%	36.7%	10.6%
2026-09-20T12:16:52+00:00	31.7%	57.8%	39.5%	36.7%	10.6%
2026-09-20T13:01:57+00:00	31.7%	57.8%	39.5%	36.7%	10.6%
2026-09-20T13:47:04+00:00	29.2%	57.8%	39.5%	36.7%	10.6%
2026-09-20T14:33:35+00:00	29.2%	57.8%	39.5%	36.7%	10.1%
2026-09-20T15:18:51+00:00	29.2%	54.5%	39.5%	36.7%	10.1%
2026-09-20T16:04:07+00:00	29.2%	54.5%	39.5%	36.7%	10.1%
2026-09-20T16:49:13+00:00	29.2%	54.5%	39.5%	36.7%	3.7%
2026-09-20T17:34:18+00:00	29.2%	54.5%	39.5%	36.7%	3.7%
2026-09-20T18:19:23+00:00	29.2%	54.5%	39.5%	36.7%	3.7%
2026-09-20T19:04:31+00:00	29.2%	54.5%	39.5%	36.7%	3.7%
2026-09-20T19:49:36+00:00	33.4%	54.5%	39.5%	36.7%	3.7%
2026-09-20T20:34:42+00:00	33.4%	54.5%	39.5%	36.7%	3.7%
2026-09-20T21:19:46+00:00	33.4%	54.5%	39.5%	36.7%	3.7%
2026-09-20T22:04:50+00:00	33.4%	54.5%	39.5%	36.7%	3.7%
2026-09-20T22:49:59+00:00	33.4%	54.5%	39.5%	24.1%	3.7%
2026-09-20T23:35:05+00:00	33.4%	42.7%	39.5%	24.1%	3.7%
2026-09-21T00:20:13+00:00	33.4%	42.7%	39.5%	24.1%	3.7%
2026-09-21T01:05:24+00:00	33.4%	42.7%	39.5%	24.1%	3.7%
2026-09-21T01:50:30+00:00	32.5%	42.7%	39.5%	24.1%	3.7%
2026-09-21T02:35:35+00:00	32.5%	42.7%	39.5%	24.1%	3.7%
2026-09-21T03:20:48+00:00	32.5%	42.7%	39.5%	24.1%	3.7%
2026-09-21T04:06:01+00:00	32.5%	42.7%	39.5%	24.1%	3.7%
2026-09-21T04:51:11+00:00	32.5%	42.7%	39.5%	24.1%	1.4%
2026-09-21T05:36:18+00:00	32.5%	42.7%	39.5%	24.1%	1.4%
2026-09-21T06:21:23+00:00	32.5%	42.7%	39.5%	24.1%	1.4%
2026-09-21T07:06:31+00:00	32.5%	42.7%	39.5%	24.1%	1.4%
2026-09-21T07:51:36+00:00	33.9%	42.7%	39.5%	24.1%	1.4%
2026-09-21T08:36:41+00:00	33.9%	42.7%	39.5%	24.1%	1.4%
2026-09-21T09:21:46+00:00	33.9%	42.7%	39.5%	24.1%	1.4%
2026-09-21T10:06:50+00:00	33.9%	42.7%	39.5%	24.1%	1.4%
2026-09-21T10:52:14+00:00	33.9%	42.7%	39.5%	33.5%	1.4%
2026-09-21T11:37:54+00:00	33.9%	44.6%	39.5%	33.5%	1.4%
2026-09-21T12:23:02+00:00	33.9%	44.6%	39.5%	33.5%	1.4%
2026-09-21T13:08:06+00:00	33.9%	44.6%	39.5%	33.5%	1.4%
2026-09-21T13:53:12+00:00	33.9%	44.6%	39.5%	33.5%	1.4%
2026-09-21T14:40:19+00:00	33.8%	44.6%	39.6%	33.5%	1.4%
2026-09-21T15:25:32+00:00	33.8%	43.4%	39.6%	33.5%	1.4%
2026-09-21T16:10:47+00:00	33.8%	43.4%	39.6%	33.5%	1.4%
2026-09-21T16:55:52+00:00	33.8%	43.4%	39.6%	33.5%	1.5%
2026-09-21T17:40:58+00:00	33.8%	43.4%	39.6%	33.5%	1.5%
2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:00	33.8%	43.4%	39.6%	33.5%	1.5%
2026-09-21T19:11:12+00:00	33.8%	43.4%	39.6%	33.5%	1.5%
2026-09-21T19:56:20+00:00	34.7%	43.4%	39.6%	21.2%	1.5%
2026-09-21T20:41:31+00:00	34.7%	43.4%	39.6%	21.2%	1.5%
2026-09-21T21:26:37+00:00	34.7%	43.4%	39.6%	21.2%	1.5%
2026-09-21T22:11:43+00:00	34.7%	43.4%	39.6%	21.2%	1.5%
2026-09-21T22:56:48+00:00	34.7%	43.4%	39.6%	21.2%	1.5%
2026-09-21T23:41:53+00:00	34.7%	37.0%	39.6%	21.2%	1.5%
2026-09-22T00:26:58+00:00	34.7%	37.0%	39.6%	21.2%	1.5%
2026-09-22T01:12:07+00:00	34.7%	37.0%	39.6%	21.2%	1.5%
2026-09-22T01:57:13+00:00	38.4%	37.0%	39.6%	21.2%	1.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-21 14:00	Pending
National Blend	43%	65.0°F	2.9°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	64.4°F	4.2°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	64.3°F	4.1°F	2026-09-21 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	64.5°F	3.0°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	62.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-21 12:00	Pending
ICON	2%	57.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-21 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260922-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 17 · 15:00 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗