KMSP / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Sep 17 · 14:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

40%

40%

34%

25%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 42.4¢Risks 42.45u

HRESNO 57.6¢Risks 57.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +57.55u · HRES −57.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	93.5%	—	—	—	—	67.1%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	82.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	70.5%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	56.8%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	70.2%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	66.5%	—	—	55.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	78.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	—	—	—	52.6%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	11.1%	—	—	53.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	55.6%	6.3%	—	41.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	25.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	3.2%	8.4%	60.1%	—	39.2%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	50.8%	4.2%	67.0%	—	20.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	22.4%	23.6%	45.2%	—	21.2%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	12.9%	31.5%	44.2%	—	12.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	11.1%	28.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	30.7%	49.1%	34.6%	—	12.2%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	32.6%	20.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	28.9%	53.7%	25.9%	—	10.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	32.6%	43.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	25.5%	55.8%	22.5%	—	9.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	11.4%	40.1%	—	—	8.0%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	9.4%	42.8%	15.1%	—	7.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	4.0%	31.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	5.0%	37.1%	13.7%	—	6.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	1.8%	34.6%	0.3%	—	5.4%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	1.1%	32.0%	9.0%	0.0%	4.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.0%	33.6%	5.8%	—	5.1%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.4%	33.1%	7.1%	21.7%	4.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.4%	30.2%	4.0%	—	3.2%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.3%	31.9%	3.7%	21.0%	1.6%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.7%	28.8%	4.3%	—	1.4%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.5%	24.5%	2.5%	19.1%	2.7%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.9%	24.8%	1.7%	—	2.0%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.0%	39.1%	2.0%	13.4%	1.8%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	7.9%	30.9%	6.3%	—	4.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	60%	68.3°F	3.1°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-17 02:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	66.0°F	6.5°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	40%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	66.4°F	4.2°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	65.5°F	5.0°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	63.5°F	5.8°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260922-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 17 · 03:42 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗