KMSP / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Sep 17 · 14:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

40%

40%

34%

25%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 42.4¢Risks 42.45u

HRESNO 57.6¢Risks 57.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +57.55u · HRES −57.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T14:15:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-17T03:42:33+00:00	28.1%	71.8%	38.6%	38.2%	68.6%
2026-09-17T04:27:41+00:00	28.1%	71.8%	38.6%	38.2%	68.6%
2026-09-17T05:12:47+00:00	28.1%	71.8%	41.1%	38.2%	39.9%
2026-09-17T05:57:53+00:00	28.1%	71.8%	41.1%	38.2%	39.9%
2026-09-17T06:43:01+00:00	28.1%	71.8%	41.1%	38.2%	39.9%
2026-09-17T07:28:06+00:00	28.1%	71.8%	41.1%	38.2%	39.9%
2026-09-17T08:13:11+00:00	41.2%	71.8%	41.1%	38.2%	39.9%
2026-09-17T08:58:15+00:00	41.2%	71.8%	41.1%	38.2%	39.9%
2026-09-17T09:43:24+00:00	41.2%	71.8%	41.1%	38.2%	39.9%
2026-09-17T10:28:40+00:00	41.2%	71.8%	41.1%	24.7%	39.9%
2026-09-17T11:14:05+00:00	41.2%	60.2%	39.5%	24.7%	39.9%
2026-09-17T11:59:13+00:00	41.2%	60.2%	39.5%	24.7%	39.9%
2026-09-17T12:44:17+00:00	41.2%	60.2%	39.5%	24.7%	39.9%
2026-09-17T13:29:23+00:00	41.2%	60.2%	39.5%	24.7%	39.9%
2026-09-17T14:15:36+00:00	34.3%	60.2%	39.5%	24.7%	39.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	60%	68.3°F	3.1°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-17 02:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	66.0°F	6.5°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	40%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	66.4°F	4.2°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	65.5°F	5.0°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	63.5°F	5.8°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260922-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 17 · 03:42 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗