KMSP / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Sep 23 · 07:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

62%

52%

47%

33%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 53.0¢Risks 53.00u

ICONNO 47.0¢Risks 47.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.00u · ICON −47.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	81.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	—	—	—	82.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	75.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	—	—	—	79.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	7.5%	—	—	69.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	41.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	31.8%	—	—	72.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	48.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	—	—	—	73.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	78.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	—	—	—	68.2%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	91.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	83.4%	97.4%	23.0%	—	51.4%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	99.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	42.7%	48.5%	78.0%	69.6%	—	45.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	55.3%	16.9%	69.7%	—	33.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	42.9%	77.6%	62.5%	—	32.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	82.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	37.7%	84.8%	50.8%	—	33.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	22.0%	84.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	28.4%	26.2%	87.8%	27.7%	—	32.2%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	21.5%	85.0%	—	—	29.4%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	23.0%	81.0%	25.9%	—	33.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	15.9%	78.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	11.1%	81.7%	32.1%	—	34.8%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	19.7%	83.0%	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	19.7%	80.3%	37.8%	—	33.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	16.9%	83.7%	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	19.0%	81.7%	33.1%	0.0%	33.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	19.8%	17.5%	79.4%	0.1%	—	30.5%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	18.3%	83.2%	40.8%	—	26.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	21.6%	82.5%	57.2%	—	27.3%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	34.2%	83.4%	51.2%	52.5%	33.1%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	29.1%	88.5%	39.8%	—	30.2%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	29.5%	28.4%	89.9%	50.0%	51.3%	31.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	56.9%	86.1%	62.3%	—	39.0%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	61.4%	89.8%	69.5%	64.2%	45.7%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	28.5%	51.5%	92.0%	67.5%	—	47.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	54.7%	93.4%	63.9%	68.3%	48.4%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	81.9%	91.4%	78.5%	—	70.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	73%	68.0°F	4.1°F	2026-09-22 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	66.5°F	3.4°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-23 02:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	65.7°F	3.8°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	65.3°F	3.1°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
ICON	33%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260923-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 18 · 15:07 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗