KMSP / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Sep 21 · 14:40 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

38%

34%

33%

28%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 21.6¢Risks 21.55u

ICONNO 78.5¢Risks 78.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +78.45u · ICON −78.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T14:40:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-18T03:02:44+00:00	43.3%	62.1%	32.7%	28.3%	61.0%
2026-09-18T03:48:04+00:00	43.3%	62.1%	32.7%	28.3%	61.0%
2026-09-18T04:33:08+00:00	43.3%	62.1%	32.7%	28.3%	45.9%
2026-09-18T05:18:14+00:00	43.3%	62.1%	32.7%	28.3%	45.9%
2026-09-18T06:03:19+00:00	43.3%	62.1%	32.7%	28.3%	45.9%
2026-09-18T06:48:27+00:00	43.3%	62.1%	32.7%	28.3%	45.9%
2026-09-18T07:33:44+00:00	47.6%	62.1%	32.7%	21.0%	45.9%
2026-09-18T08:19:07+00:00	47.6%	62.1%	32.7%	21.0%	45.9%
2026-09-18T09:04:15+00:00	47.6%	62.1%	32.7%	21.0%	45.9%
2026-09-18T09:49:20+00:00	47.6%	62.1%	32.7%	21.0%	45.9%
2026-09-18T10:34:39+00:00	47.6%	62.1%	32.7%	21.0%	45.9%
2026-09-18T11:20:05+00:00	47.6%	58.3%	32.7%	21.0%	45.9%
2026-09-18T12:05:15+00:00	47.6%	58.3%	32.7%	21.0%	45.9%
2026-09-18T12:50:20+00:00	47.6%	58.3%	32.7%	21.0%	45.9%
2026-09-18T13:35:26+00:00	48.4%	58.3%	32.7%	21.0%	45.9%
2026-09-18T14:21:55+00:00	48.4%	58.3%	32.7%	21.0%	45.9%
2026-09-19T03:08:57+00:00	43.6%	56.4%	32.7%	16.9%	41.9%
2026-09-19T03:54:14+00:00	43.6%	56.4%	32.7%	16.9%	41.9%
2026-09-19T04:39:19+00:00	43.6%	56.4%	32.7%	16.9%	23.0%
2026-09-19T05:24:24+00:00	43.6%	56.4%	32.7%	16.9%	23.0%
2026-09-19T06:09:29+00:00	43.6%	56.4%	32.7%	16.9%	23.0%
2026-09-19T06:54:38+00:00	43.6%	56.4%	32.7%	16.9%	23.0%
2026-09-19T07:39:57+00:00	43.2%	56.4%	32.7%	18.7%	23.0%
2026-09-19T08:25:27+00:00	43.2%	56.4%	32.7%	18.7%	23.0%
2026-09-19T09:10:36+00:00	43.2%	56.4%	32.7%	18.7%	23.0%
2026-09-19T09:55:41+00:00	43.2%	56.4%	32.7%	18.7%	23.0%
2026-09-19T10:40:47+00:00	43.2%	56.4%	32.7%	18.7%	23.0%
2026-09-19T11:25:55+00:00	43.2%	56.4%	32.7%	18.7%	23.0%
2026-09-19T12:11:04+00:00	43.2%	56.4%	32.7%	18.7%	23.0%
2026-09-19T12:56:09+00:00	43.2%	56.4%	32.7%	18.7%	23.0%
2026-09-19T13:41:15+00:00	42.4%	56.4%	32.7%	18.7%	23.0%
2026-09-19T14:27:50+00:00	42.4%	56.4%	32.8%	18.7%	23.0%
2026-09-19T15:13:02+00:00	42.4%	56.4%	32.8%	18.7%	23.0%
2026-09-19T15:58:14+00:00	42.4%	56.4%	32.8%	18.7%	23.0%
2026-09-19T16:43:19+00:00	42.4%	56.4%	32.8%	18.7%	21.1%
2026-09-19T17:28:25+00:00	42.4%	56.4%	32.8%	18.7%	21.1%
2026-09-19T18:13:29+00:00	42.4%	56.4%	32.8%	18.7%	21.1%
2026-09-19T18:58:39+00:00	42.4%	56.4%	32.8%	18.7%	21.1%
2026-09-19T19:43:44+00:00	44.9%	56.4%	32.8%	28.3%	21.1%
2026-09-19T20:28:48+00:00	44.9%	56.4%	32.8%	28.3%	21.1%
2026-09-19T21:13:53+00:00	44.9%	56.4%	32.8%	28.3%	21.1%
2026-09-19T21:58:58+00:00	44.9%	56.4%	32.8%	28.3%	21.1%
2026-09-19T22:44:03+00:00	44.9%	56.4%	32.8%	28.3%	21.1%
2026-09-19T23:29:09+00:00	44.9%	42.4%	32.8%	28.3%	21.2%
2026-09-20T00:14:14+00:00	44.9%	42.4%	32.8%	28.3%	21.2%
2026-09-20T00:59:23+00:00	44.9%	42.4%	32.8%	28.3%	21.2%
2026-09-20T01:44:31+00:00	45.7%	42.4%	32.8%	28.3%	21.2%
2026-09-20T02:29:38+00:00	45.7%	42.4%	32.8%	28.3%	21.2%
2026-09-20T03:14:49+00:00	45.7%	42.4%	32.8%	28.3%	21.2%
2026-09-20T04:00:04+00:00	45.7%	42.4%	32.8%	28.3%	21.2%
2026-09-20T04:45:09+00:00	45.7%	42.4%	32.8%	28.3%	4.7%
2026-09-20T05:30:15+00:00	45.7%	42.4%	32.8%	28.3%	4.7%
2026-09-20T06:15:20+00:00	45.7%	42.4%	32.8%	28.3%	4.7%
2026-09-20T07:00:27+00:00	45.7%	42.4%	32.8%	28.3%	4.7%
2026-09-20T07:45:47+00:00	43.7%	42.4%	32.8%	24.6%	4.7%
2026-09-20T08:31:13+00:00	43.7%	42.4%	32.8%	24.6%	4.7%
2026-09-20T09:16:18+00:00	43.7%	42.4%	32.8%	24.6%	4.7%
2026-09-20T10:01:22+00:00	43.7%	42.4%	32.8%	24.6%	4.7%
2026-09-20T10:46:27+00:00	43.7%	42.4%	32.8%	24.6%	4.7%
2026-09-20T11:31:35+00:00	43.7%	46.8%	32.8%	24.6%	4.7%
2026-09-20T12:16:52+00:00	43.7%	46.8%	32.8%	24.6%	4.7%
2026-09-20T13:01:57+00:00	43.7%	46.8%	32.8%	24.6%	4.7%
2026-09-20T13:47:04+00:00	42.8%	46.8%	32.8%	24.6%	4.7%
2026-09-20T14:33:35+00:00	41.9%	46.8%	32.8%	24.6%	4.7%
2026-09-20T15:18:51+00:00	41.9%	43.9%	32.8%	24.6%	4.7%
2026-09-20T16:04:07+00:00	41.9%	43.9%	32.8%	24.6%	4.7%
2026-09-20T16:49:13+00:00	41.9%	43.9%	32.8%	24.6%	10.9%
2026-09-20T17:34:18+00:00	41.9%	43.9%	32.8%	24.6%	10.9%
2026-09-20T18:19:23+00:00	41.9%	43.9%	32.8%	24.6%	10.9%
2026-09-20T19:04:31+00:00	41.9%	43.9%	32.8%	24.6%	10.9%
2026-09-20T19:49:36+00:00	46.4%	43.9%	32.8%	24.6%	10.9%
2026-09-20T20:34:42+00:00	46.4%	43.9%	32.8%	24.6%	10.9%
2026-09-20T21:19:46+00:00	46.4%	43.9%	32.8%	24.6%	10.9%
2026-09-20T22:04:50+00:00	46.4%	43.9%	32.8%	24.6%	10.9%
2026-09-20T22:49:59+00:00	46.4%	43.9%	32.8%	26.1%	10.9%
2026-09-20T23:35:05+00:00	46.4%	32.3%	32.8%	26.1%	10.9%
2026-09-21T00:20:13+00:00	46.4%	32.3%	32.8%	26.1%	10.9%
2026-09-21T01:05:24+00:00	46.4%	32.3%	32.8%	26.1%	10.9%
2026-09-21T01:50:30+00:00	43.7%	32.3%	32.8%	26.1%	10.9%
2026-09-21T02:35:35+00:00	43.7%	32.3%	32.8%	26.1%	10.9%
2026-09-21T03:20:48+00:00	43.7%	32.3%	32.8%	26.1%	10.9%
2026-09-21T04:06:01+00:00	43.7%	32.3%	32.8%	26.1%	10.9%
2026-09-21T04:51:11+00:00	43.7%	32.3%	32.8%	26.1%	5.3%
2026-09-21T05:36:18+00:00	43.7%	32.3%	32.8%	26.1%	5.3%
2026-09-21T06:21:23+00:00	43.7%	32.3%	32.8%	26.1%	5.3%
2026-09-21T07:06:31+00:00	43.7%	32.3%	32.8%	26.1%	5.3%
2026-09-21T07:51:36+00:00	39.7%	32.3%	32.8%	26.1%	5.3%
2026-09-21T08:36:41+00:00	39.7%	32.3%	32.8%	26.1%	5.3%
2026-09-21T09:21:46+00:00	39.7%	32.3%	32.8%	26.1%	5.3%
2026-09-21T10:06:50+00:00	39.7%	32.3%	32.8%	26.1%	5.3%
2026-09-21T10:52:14+00:00	39.7%	32.3%	32.8%	28.1%	5.3%
2026-09-21T11:37:54+00:00	39.7%	34.3%	32.8%	28.1%	5.3%
2026-09-21T12:23:02+00:00	39.7%	34.3%	32.8%	28.1%	5.3%
2026-09-21T13:08:06+00:00	39.7%	34.3%	32.8%	28.1%	5.3%
2026-09-21T13:53:12+00:00	37.8%	34.3%	32.8%	28.1%	5.3%
2026-09-21T14:40:19+00:00	37.8%	34.4%	32.8%	28.1%	5.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	76%	69.0°F	2.1°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-21 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	66.2°F	4.2°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	66.4°F	2.7°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	33%	65.5°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	65.1°F	4.1°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	61.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260923-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 18 · 03:02 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗