KMSP / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Sep 21 · 14:40 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

38%

34%

33%

28%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 21.6¢Risks 21.55u

ICONNO 78.5¢Risks 78.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +78.45u · ICON −78.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	74.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	70.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	4.1%	—	—	58.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.3%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	21.6%	—	—	61.2%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	55.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	73.1%	94.4%	13.7%	—	37.6%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	97.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	34.3%	65.7%	55.8%	—	31.7%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	68.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	40.2%	9.0%	55.3%	—	21.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	43.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	28.1%	64.1%	46.8%	—	19.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	70.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	23.2%	72.8%	34.5%	—	20.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	11.5%	71.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	14.1%	76.6%	15.1%	—	18.4%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	10.8%	72.1%	—	—	16.1%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	11.5%	66.1%	13.4%	—	18.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	7.0%	62.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	4.4%	66.1%	17.1%	—	19.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	8.8%	67.4%	—	—	17.7%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	8.6%	63.1%	20.4%	—	17.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	6.8%	67.4%	—	—	17.6%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	7.7%	63.9%	16.2%	0.0%	16.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	6.7%	60.0%	0.0%	—	14.1%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	6.8%	64.8%	20.7%	—	11.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	8.2%	63.0%	33.6%	—	11.4%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	15.1%	63.4%	27.6%	28.7%	14.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	11.5%	70.9%	18.2%	—	12.2%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	10.7%	72.7%	25.1%	26.2%	12.7%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	30.0%	65.0%	35.0%	—	16.4%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	33.1%	70.7%	41.4%	35.8%	20.2%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	23.6%	74.0%	38.1%	—	20.2%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	25.0%	76.2%	33.1%	37.6%	20.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	53.3%	70.5%	48.4%	—	38.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	76%	69.0°F	2.1°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-21 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	66.2°F	4.2°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	66.4°F	2.7°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	33%	65.5°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	65.1°F	4.1°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	61.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260923-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 18 · 03:02 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗