KMSP / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Sep 22 · 01:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

33%

25%

21%

18%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 18.2¢Risks 18.25u

ICONNO 81.8¢Risks 81.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +81.75u · ICON −81.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	69.0%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	59.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	—	—	—	70.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	87.5%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	3.0%	—	—	52.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	25.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	17.2%	—	—	55.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	29.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	—	—	—	55.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	—	—	—	48.6%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	67.0%	92.1%	10.2%	—	31.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	96.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	27.9%	58.7%	48.5%	—	25.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	33.0%	6.3%	47.7%	—	16.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	21.8%	56.4%	39.0%	—	14.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	62.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	17.3%	65.5%	27.2%	—	14.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	7.8%	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	9.7%	69.3%	10.5%	—	13.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	7.1%	64.1%	—	—	11.2%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	7.6%	57.3%	9.0%	—	12.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	4.4%	52.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	2.5%	56.8%	11.6%	—	13.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	5.4%	58.0%	—	—	11.9%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	5.2%	53.1%	13.9%	—	11.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	4.0%	57.4%	—	—	11.6%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	4.5%	53.3%	10.4%	0.0%	10.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	3.8%	48.9%	0.0%	—	8.7%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	3.8%	53.5%	13.4%	—	6.5%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	4.5%	51.2%	23.4%	—	6.6%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	8.9%	51.2%	18.2%	19.1%	8.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	6.4%	59.0%	10.9%	—	6.8%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	5.7%	60.6%	15.7%	16.5%	7.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	19.1%	51.4%	23.2%	—	9.2%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	21.2%	57.2%	28.0%	23.4%	11.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	13.6%	60.5%	24.8%	—	11.2%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	14.2%	62.4%	20.3%	23.8%	11.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	37.0%	54.9%	32.4%	—	24.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	60%	69.0°F	2.0°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-21 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	33%	66.7°F	4.2°F	2026-09-21 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	65.5°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	65.2°F	4.1°F	2026-09-21 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	65.9°F	2.8°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
ICON	3%	61.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-21 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260923-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 21 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗