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KMSP / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Sep 22 · 01:57 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
33%
WN2
25%
HRES
21%
EPS
18%
ICON
3%
Consensus
27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 18.2¢Risks 18.25u
VS
ICONNO 81.8¢Risks 81.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +81.75u · ICON −81.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-09-21T15:25:32+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-09-21T16:10:47+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-09-21T16:55:52+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-09-21T17:40:58+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-09-21T19:11:12+00:00AIFS Single: 30.0% · 2026-09-21T19:56:20+00:00AIFS Single: 30.0% · 2026-09-21T20:41:31+00:00AIFS Single: 30.0% · 2026-09-21T21:26:37+00:00AIFS Single: 30.0% · 2026-09-21T22:11:43+00:00AIFS Single: 30.0% · 2026-09-21T22:56:48+00:00AIFS Single: 30.0% · 2026-09-21T23:41:53+00:00AIFS Single: 30.0% · 2026-09-22T00:26:58+00:00AIFS Single: 30.0% · 2026-09-22T01:12:07+00:00AIFS Single: 33.4% · 2026-09-22T01:57:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.0% · 2026-09-21T15:25:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.0% · 2026-09-21T16:10:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.0% · 2026-09-21T16:55:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.0% · 2026-09-21T17:40:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.0% · 2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.0% · 2026-09-21T19:11:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.0% · 2026-09-21T19:56:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.0% · 2026-09-21T20:41:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.0% · 2026-09-21T21:26:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.0% · 2026-09-21T22:11:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.0% · 2026-09-21T22:56:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.8% · 2026-09-21T23:41:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.8% · 2026-09-22T00:26:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.8% · 2026-09-22T01:12:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.8% · 2026-09-22T01:57:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.2% · 2026-09-21T15:25:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.2% · 2026-09-21T16:10:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.2% · 2026-09-21T16:55:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.2% · 2026-09-21T17:40:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.2% · 2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.2% · 2026-09-21T19:11:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.2% · 2026-09-21T19:56:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.2% · 2026-09-21T20:41:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.2% · 2026-09-21T21:26:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.2% · 2026-09-21T22:11:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.2% · 2026-09-21T22:56:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.2% · 2026-09-21T23:41:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.2% · 2026-09-22T00:26:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.2% · 2026-09-22T01:12:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.2% · 2026-09-22T01:57:13+00:00IFS HRES: 20.5% · 2026-09-21T15:25:32+00:00IFS HRES: 20.5% · 2026-09-21T16:10:47+00:00IFS HRES: 20.5% · 2026-09-21T16:55:52+00:00IFS HRES: 20.5% · 2026-09-21T17:40:58+00:00IFS HRES: 20.5% · 2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:00IFS HRES: 20.5% · 2026-09-21T19:11:12+00:00IFS HRES: 21.2% · 2026-09-21T19:56:20+00:00IFS HRES: 21.2% · 2026-09-21T20:41:31+00:00IFS HRES: 21.2% · 2026-09-21T21:26:37+00:00IFS HRES: 21.2% · 2026-09-21T22:11:43+00:00IFS HRES: 21.2% · 2026-09-21T22:56:48+00:00IFS HRES: 21.2% · 2026-09-21T23:41:53+00:00IFS HRES: 21.2% · 2026-09-22T00:26:58+00:00IFS HRES: 21.2% · 2026-09-22T01:12:07+00:00IFS HRES: 21.2% · 2026-09-22T01:57:13+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-09-21T15:25:32+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-09-21T16:10:47+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-09-21T16:55:52+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-09-21T17:40:58+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-09-21T19:11:12+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-09-21T19:56:20+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-09-21T20:41:31+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-09-21T21:26:37+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-09-21T22:11:43+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-09-21T22:56:48+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-09-21T23:41:53+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-09-22T00:26:58+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-09-22T01:12:07+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-09-22T01:57:13+00:0009-21 15:2509-21 20:4109-22 01:57
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-22T01:57:13+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-21T15:25:32+00:0029.2%21.0%25.2%20.5%2.9%
2026-09-21T16:10:47+00:0029.2%21.0%25.2%20.5%2.9%
2026-09-21T16:55:52+00:0029.2%21.0%25.2%20.5%3.1%
2026-09-21T17:40:58+00:0029.2%21.0%25.2%20.5%3.1%
2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:0029.2%21.0%25.2%20.5%3.1%
2026-09-21T19:11:12+00:0029.2%21.0%25.2%20.5%3.1%
2026-09-21T19:56:20+00:0030.0%21.0%25.2%21.2%3.1%
2026-09-21T20:41:31+00:0030.0%21.0%25.2%21.2%3.1%
2026-09-21T21:26:37+00:0030.0%21.0%25.2%21.2%3.1%
2026-09-21T22:11:43+00:0030.0%21.0%25.2%21.2%3.1%
2026-09-21T22:56:48+00:0030.0%21.0%25.2%21.2%3.1%
2026-09-21T23:41:53+00:0030.0%17.8%25.2%21.2%3.1%
2026-09-22T00:26:58+00:0030.0%17.8%25.2%21.2%3.1%
2026-09-22T01:12:07+00:0030.0%17.8%25.2%21.2%3.1%
2026-09-22T01:57:13+00:0033.4%17.8%25.2%21.2%3.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend60%69.0°F2.0°F2026-09-21 06:00Pending
NWS forecast56%69.0°F3.4°F2026-09-21 14:00Pending
AIFS Single33%66.7°F4.2°F2026-09-21 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 225%65.5°F4.5°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending
IFS HRES21%65.2°F4.1°F2026-09-21 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble18%65.9°F2.8°F2026-09-21 00:00Pending
ICON3%61.9°F3.5°F2026-09-21 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260923-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 21 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗