KMSP / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST15%Sep 18 · 02:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

13%

Consensus

15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 18.9¢Risks 18.85u

EPSNO 81.2¢Risks 81.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +81.15u · EPS −81.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	—	—	—	42.7%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	0.7%	—	—	29.8%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	—	—	—	26.2%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	5.8%	—	—	30.7%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	35.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	23.8%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	56.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	39.6%	75.9%	2.4%	—	11.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	9.3%	30.4%	22.1%	—	8.2%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	11.4%	1.1%	20.5%	—	3.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	12.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	5.7%	26.1%	14.0%	—	3.1%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	3.8%	33.0%	7.4%	—	3.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	1.1%	31.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	1.5%	35.4%	1.7%	—	2.3%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.9%	29.4%	—	—	1.7%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.9%	23.0%	1.2%	—	2.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.4%	19.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.2%	21.0%	1.5%	—	1.8%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.5%	21.1%	—	—	1.5%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.4%	17.0%	1.7%	—	1.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.2%	19.0%	—	—	1.2%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.3%	15.5%	0.9%	0.0%	0.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	12.3%	0.0%	—	0.6%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	14.0%	1.1%	—	0.4%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	11.9%	2.7%	—	0.3%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.5%	11.2%	1.6%	1.7%	0.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	14.3%	0.6%	—	0.3%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	14.1%	0.9%	1.0%	0.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.2%	8.6%	1.7%	—	0.3%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.2%	10.2%	2.1%	1.5%	0.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	10.5%	1.4%	—	0.3%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.4%	10.2%	0.8%	1.1%	0.2%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.3%	6.3%	1.7%	—	0.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	73.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-17 14:00	Pending
ICON	32%	69.4°F	6.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	66.6°F	5.3°F	2026-09-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	63.7°F	6.6°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	65.5°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	5%	68.3°F	2.6°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260923-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 16 · 08:07 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗