KMSP / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Sep 24 · 07:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

83%

64%

51%

43%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 66.6¢Risks 66.65u

HRESNO 33.4¢Risks 33.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +33.35u · HRES −33.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	87.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	98.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	91.7%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	87.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	90.4%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	86.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	98.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	85.3%	—	—	—	—	85.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	76.6%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	73.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	86.2%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	87.3%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	93.5%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	74.3%	—	—	78.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	65.8%	16.3%	99.7%	—	—	76.7%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	97.6%	96.4%	16.2%	—	68.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	67.7%	96.7%	94.5%	—	67.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	46.2%	73.0%	95.6%	88.6%	—	62.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	97.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	52.4%	87.7%	70.5%	—	62.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	73.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	54.2%	84.8%	36.9%	—	59.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	24.6%	28.8%	94.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	26.2%	58.7%	91.3%	53.5%	—	60.4%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	43.7%	92.5%	—	—	58.9%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	27.4%	74.1%	48.2%	—	49.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	45.3%	53.8%	—	—	2.2%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	30.4%	9.8%	48.0%	—	59.6%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	41.1%	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	32.1%	8.6%	63.1%	—	53.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	43.7%	89.9%	—	—	63.5%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	48.9%	37.1%	39.2%	96.2%	66.9%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	43.3%	82.5%	4.0%	—	70.4%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	50.0%	24.2%	34.1%	91.0%	51.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	42.8%	6.6%	89.2%	—	61.9%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	57.4%	51.2%	80.9%	80.9%	38.9%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	72.0%	26.9%	65.1%	—	25.9%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	58.0%	55.4%	60.6%	90.5%	23.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	65.0%	92.9%	75.8%	—	37.7%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	79.8%	30.5%	75.5%	89.8%	58.6%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	75.2%	26.0%	77.6%	—	82.8%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	76.2%	56.3%	91.1%	97.6%	73.7%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	63.0%	87.7%	88.5%	—	86.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	83%	66.4°F	3.0°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	64.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-24 02:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	64.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
ICON	51%	63.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	62.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260924-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 22 · 02:42 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗