KMSP / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Sep 24 · 02:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

62%

44%

24%

22%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 48.6¢Risks 48.65u

ICONNO 51.4¢Risks 51.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +51.35u · ICON −51.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	—	79.7%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	57.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	77.5%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	78.6%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	35.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	79.9%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	88.6%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	—	77.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	62.8%	—	—	68.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	9.3%	99.1%	—	—	65.2%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	94.8%	92.6%	9.0%	—	55.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	75.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	53.6%	92.9%	89.0%	—	52.9%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	68.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	59.1%	90.7%	79.5%	—	47.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	94.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.5%	36.7%	77.6%	55.6%	—	46.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	37.7%	72.8%	22.5%	—	43.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	16.2%	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	41.3%	82.2%	36.3%	—	43.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	27.1%	83.9%	—	—	41.1%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	14.4%	57.3%	30.6%	—	31.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	27.6%	35.2%	—	—	0.6%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	15.9%	3.8%	29.6%	—	40.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	23.4%	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	16.3%	3.0%	42.8%	—	33.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	24.5%	77.2%	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	28.2%	19.0%	20.6%	89.1%	45.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	23.1%	64.3%	1.0%	—	48.9%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	28.0%	10.0%	16.0%	77.6%	28.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	21.6%	1.7%	73.7%	—	38.1%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	33.1%	27.6%	59.9%	59.9%	18.2%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	47.4%	10.3%	39.8%	—	9.8%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	31.9%	29.5%	34.3%	73.9%	7.9%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	37.7%	77.9%	50.0%	—	15.6%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	54.3%	10.8%	48.5%	70.7%	30.5%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	47.0%	8.0%	50.0%	—	57.5%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	46.8%	26.3%	71.0%	88.3%	43.7%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	30.9%	63.0%	64.5%	—	61.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	75%	67.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	66.4°F	3.0°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-23 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	64.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending
National Blend	34%	64.0°F	3.7°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	62.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
ICON	22%	62.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260924-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 22 · 15:32 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗