KMSP / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Sep 24 · 02:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

62%

44%

24%

22%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 48.6¢Risks 48.65u

ICONNO 51.4¢Risks 51.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +51.35u · ICON −51.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T02:11:12+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-22T15:32:24+00:00	50.0%	68.5%	69.1%	70.3%	23.0%
2026-09-22T16:17:41+00:00	50.0%	68.5%	69.1%	70.3%	23.0%
2026-09-22T17:02:46+00:00	50.0%	68.5%	69.1%	70.3%	23.9%
2026-09-22T17:47:52+00:00	50.0%	68.5%	69.1%	70.3%	23.9%
2026-09-22T18:32:57+00:00	50.0%	68.5%	69.1%	70.3%	23.9%
2026-09-22T19:18:06+00:00	50.0%	68.5%	69.1%	70.3%	23.9%
2026-09-22T20:03:11+00:00	61.3%	68.5%	69.1%	70.3%	23.9%
2026-09-22T20:48:16+00:00	61.3%	68.5%	69.1%	70.3%	23.9%
2026-09-22T21:33:24+00:00	61.3%	68.5%	69.1%	70.3%	23.9%
2026-09-22T22:18:32+00:00	61.3%	68.5%	69.1%	70.3%	23.9%
2026-09-22T23:03:39+00:00	61.3%	68.5%	69.1%	70.3%	23.9%
2026-09-22T23:48:45+00:00	61.3%	61.0%	82.5%	70.3%	23.9%
2026-09-23T00:33:51+00:00	61.3%	61.0%	82.5%	70.3%	23.9%
2026-09-23T01:18:59+00:00	61.3%	61.0%	82.5%	70.3%	23.9%
2026-09-23T02:04:05+00:00	52.9%	61.0%	82.5%	70.3%	23.9%
2026-09-23T02:49:19+00:00	52.9%	61.0%	82.5%	70.3%	23.9%
2026-09-23T03:34:37+00:00	52.9%	61.0%	82.5%	70.3%	23.9%
2026-09-23T04:19:44+00:00	52.9%	61.0%	82.5%	70.3%	23.9%
2026-09-23T05:04:54+00:00	52.9%	61.0%	82.5%	47.1%	21.4%
2026-09-23T05:50:05+00:00	52.9%	61.0%	82.5%	47.1%	21.4%
2026-09-23T06:35:10+00:00	52.9%	61.0%	82.5%	47.1%	21.4%
2026-09-23T07:20:18+00:00	52.9%	61.0%	82.5%	47.1%	21.4%
2026-09-23T08:05:44+00:00	38.4%	61.0%	82.5%	31.6%	21.4%
2026-09-23T08:51:12+00:00	38.4%	61.0%	82.5%	31.6%	21.4%
2026-09-23T09:36:17+00:00	38.4%	61.0%	82.5%	31.6%	21.4%
2026-09-23T10:21:21+00:00	38.4%	61.0%	82.5%	31.6%	21.4%
2026-09-23T11:06:29+00:00	38.4%	60.5%	77.8%	31.6%	21.4%
2026-09-23T11:51:39+00:00	38.4%	60.5%	77.8%	31.6%	21.4%
2026-09-23T12:36:44+00:00	38.4%	60.5%	77.8%	31.6%	21.4%
2026-09-23T13:21:49+00:00	38.4%	60.5%	77.8%	31.6%	21.4%
2026-09-23T14:09:06+00:00	39.3%	60.4%	77.8%	31.6%	22.2%
2026-09-23T14:54:19+00:00	39.3%	60.4%	77.8%	31.6%	22.2%
2026-09-23T15:39:31+00:00	39.3%	60.5%	77.8%	31.6%	22.2%
2026-09-23T16:24:37+00:00	39.3%	60.5%	77.8%	31.6%	22.2%
2026-09-23T17:09:48+00:00	39.3%	60.5%	76.0%	31.6%	22.2%
2026-09-23T17:54:55+00:00	39.3%	60.5%	76.0%	31.6%	22.2%
2026-09-23T18:40:01+00:00	39.3%	60.5%	76.0%	31.6%	22.2%
2026-09-23T19:25:12+00:00	38.4%	60.5%	76.0%	23.6%	22.2%
2026-09-23T20:10:19+00:00	38.4%	60.5%	76.0%	23.6%	22.2%
2026-09-23T20:55:25+00:00	38.4%	60.5%	76.0%	23.6%	22.2%
2026-09-23T21:40:31+00:00	38.4%	60.5%	76.0%	23.6%	22.2%
2026-09-23T22:25:37+00:00	38.4%	60.5%	76.0%	23.6%	22.2%
2026-09-23T23:10:43+00:00	38.4%	61.8%	75.1%	23.6%	22.2%
2026-09-23T23:55:49+00:00	38.4%	61.8%	75.1%	23.6%	22.2%
2026-09-24T00:40:55+00:00	38.4%	61.8%	75.1%	23.6%	22.2%
2026-09-24T01:26:06+00:00	38.4%	61.8%	75.1%	23.6%	22.2%
2026-09-24T02:11:12+00:00	44.1%	61.8%	75.1%	23.6%	22.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	75%	67.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	66.4°F	3.0°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-23 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	64.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending
National Blend	34%	64.0°F	3.7°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	62.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
ICON	22%	62.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260924-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 22 · 15:32 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗