KMSP / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Sep 22 · 01:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

54%

39%

28%

27%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 31.4¢Risks 31.40u

ICONNO 68.6¢Risks 68.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +68.60u · ICON −68.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	—	—	—	71.3%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	—	—	—	69.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	69.2%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	25.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	76.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	50.0%	—	—	55.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	39.3%	4.8%	97.8%	—	—	52.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	93.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	89.8%	86.3%	4.5%	—	41.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	62.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	39.2%	86.5%	80.6%	—	38.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	43.9%	82.6%	67.0%	—	33.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	89.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	23.0%	64.1%	39.7%	—	31.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	42.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	23.2%	57.5%	12.0%	—	27.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	7.8%	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	25.5%	68.6%	21.4%	—	26.9%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	14.5%	70.6%	—	—	24.9%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	6.3%	39.1%	16.6%	—	17.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	14.3%	19.6%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	6.8%	1.2%	15.3%	—	23.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	11.0%	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	6.7%	0.8%	24.3%	—	17.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	11.1%	58.4%	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	13.1%	7.7%	8.5%	75.3%	25.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	9.7%	42.2%	0.2%	—	27.6%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	12.1%	3.1%	5.7%	57.0%	12.7%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	8.2%	0.3%	51.2%	—	18.3%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	14.4%	11.2%	35.4%	35.4%	6.3%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	23.8%	2.8%	18.2%	—	2.6%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	12.7%	11.3%	14.1%	48.7%	1.9%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	15.6%	52.8%	24.2%	—	4.3%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	26.8%	2.5%	22.2%	42.8%	10.8%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	20.2%	1.5%	22.4%	—	28.5%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	19.2%	7.7%	40.6%	65.4%	17.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	9.2%	30.9%	32.4%	—	29.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-21 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	68.0°F	4.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	45%	67.0°F	3.7°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	66.7°F	2.8°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	64.8°F	4.5°F	2026-09-21 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	27%	64.8°F	4.4°F	2026-09-21 18:00	Pending
ICON	9%	62.2°F	3.9°F	2026-09-21 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260924-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 20 · 15:18 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗