KMSP / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Sep 22 · 01:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

54%

39%

28%

27%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 31.4¢Risks 31.40u

ICONNO 68.6¢Risks 68.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +68.60u · ICON −68.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-22T01:57:13+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-20T15:18:51+00:00	31.8%	58.2%	54.1%	34.6%	36.8%
2026-09-20T16:04:07+00:00	31.8%	58.2%	54.1%	34.6%	36.8%
2026-09-20T16:49:13+00:00	31.8%	58.2%	54.1%	34.6%	13.7%
2026-09-20T17:34:18+00:00	31.8%	58.2%	54.1%	34.6%	13.7%
2026-09-20T18:19:23+00:00	31.8%	58.2%	54.1%	34.6%	13.7%
2026-09-20T19:04:31+00:00	31.8%	58.2%	54.1%	34.6%	13.7%
2026-09-20T19:49:36+00:00	33.4%	58.2%	54.1%	34.6%	13.7%
2026-09-20T20:34:42+00:00	33.4%	58.2%	54.1%	34.6%	13.7%
2026-09-20T21:19:46+00:00	33.4%	58.2%	54.1%	34.6%	13.7%
2026-09-20T22:04:50+00:00	33.4%	58.2%	54.1%	34.6%	13.7%
2026-09-20T22:49:59+00:00	33.4%	58.2%	54.1%	39.1%	13.7%
2026-09-20T23:35:05+00:00	33.4%	47.3%	54.1%	39.1%	13.7%
2026-09-21T00:20:13+00:00	33.4%	47.3%	54.1%	39.1%	13.7%
2026-09-21T01:05:24+00:00	33.4%	47.3%	54.1%	39.1%	13.7%
2026-09-21T01:50:30+00:00	22.0%	47.3%	54.1%	39.1%	13.7%
2026-09-21T02:35:35+00:00	22.0%	47.3%	54.1%	39.1%	13.7%
2026-09-21T03:20:48+00:00	22.0%	47.3%	54.1%	39.1%	13.7%
2026-09-21T04:06:01+00:00	22.0%	47.3%	54.1%	39.1%	13.7%
2026-09-21T04:51:11+00:00	22.0%	47.3%	54.1%	39.1%	7.5%
2026-09-21T05:36:18+00:00	22.0%	47.3%	54.1%	39.1%	7.5%
2026-09-21T06:21:23+00:00	22.0%	47.3%	54.1%	39.1%	7.5%
2026-09-21T07:06:31+00:00	22.0%	47.3%	54.1%	39.1%	7.5%
2026-09-21T07:51:36+00:00	22.0%	47.3%	54.1%	39.1%	7.5%
2026-09-21T08:36:41+00:00	22.0%	47.3%	54.1%	39.1%	7.5%
2026-09-21T09:21:46+00:00	22.0%	47.3%	54.1%	39.1%	7.5%
2026-09-21T10:06:50+00:00	22.0%	47.3%	54.1%	39.1%	7.5%
2026-09-21T10:52:14+00:00	22.0%	47.3%	54.1%	29.0%	7.5%
2026-09-21T11:37:54+00:00	22.0%	45.8%	54.1%	29.0%	7.5%
2026-09-21T12:23:02+00:00	22.0%	45.8%	54.1%	29.0%	7.5%
2026-09-21T13:08:06+00:00	22.0%	45.8%	54.1%	29.0%	7.5%
2026-09-21T13:53:12+00:00	21.3%	45.8%	54.1%	29.0%	7.5%
2026-09-21T14:40:19+00:00	21.3%	45.8%	54.1%	29.0%	7.5%
2026-09-21T15:25:32+00:00	21.3%	44.4%	54.1%	29.0%	7.5%
2026-09-21T16:10:47+00:00	21.3%	44.4%	54.1%	29.0%	7.5%
2026-09-21T16:55:52+00:00	21.3%	44.4%	54.1%	29.0%	8.7%
2026-09-21T17:40:58+00:00	21.3%	44.4%	54.1%	29.0%	8.7%
2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:00	21.3%	44.4%	54.1%	29.0%	8.7%
2026-09-21T19:11:12+00:00	21.3%	44.4%	54.1%	29.0%	8.7%
2026-09-21T19:56:20+00:00	45.5%	44.4%	54.1%	27.5%	8.7%
2026-09-21T20:41:31+00:00	45.5%	44.4%	54.1%	27.5%	8.7%
2026-09-21T21:26:37+00:00	45.5%	44.4%	54.1%	27.5%	8.7%
2026-09-21T22:11:43+00:00	45.5%	44.4%	54.1%	27.5%	8.7%
2026-09-21T22:56:48+00:00	45.5%	44.4%	54.1%	27.5%	8.7%
2026-09-21T23:41:53+00:00	45.5%	38.8%	54.1%	27.5%	8.7%
2026-09-22T00:26:58+00:00	45.5%	38.8%	54.1%	27.5%	8.7%
2026-09-22T01:12:07+00:00	45.5%	38.8%	54.1%	27.5%	8.7%
2026-09-22T01:57:13+00:00	26.9%	38.8%	54.1%	27.5%	8.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-21 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	68.0°F	4.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	45%	67.0°F	3.7°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	66.7°F	2.8°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	64.8°F	4.5°F	2026-09-21 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	27%	64.8°F	4.4°F	2026-09-21 18:00	Pending
ICON	9%	62.2°F	3.9°F	2026-09-21 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260924-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 20 · 15:18 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗