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KMSP / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 17 · 10:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
4%
AIFS
3%
ICON
3%
WN2
2%
EPS
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

The models are within 4 percentage points. Under the proposed policy, no contract would match.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.9% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.9% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.1% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.9% · 2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.2% · 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 59.0% · 2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.4% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.6% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.5% · 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.7% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 15.3% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.0% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 94.4% · 2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 42.6% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.9% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.5% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.0% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.0% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.5% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.1% · 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.4% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.0% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.2% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.6% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.9% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.1% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.2% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.9% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.1% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.9% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.9% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.7% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.4% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.9% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.4% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.2% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.6% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:0009-09 12:0009-17 06:0009-24 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.1%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:003.3%—————
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:001.9%————15.6%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:0035.9%—————
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:0015.9%————8.9%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:001.6%—————
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:0031.1%————13.1%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:0035.9%—————
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:0011.0%————17.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:0044.2%—————
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:002.9%————18.9%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:0059.0%—————
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:005.2%————13.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:0030.1%—————
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:0013.4%————16.9%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:0022.0%—————
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:0042.6%————11.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:0042.5%—————
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:009.7%————9.7%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:002.8%—————
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:004.5%————8.4%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:003.3%—————
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:002.7%————7.9%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:002.2%—0.4%———
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:002.0%————7.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:0013.3%—10.0%———
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:000.1%————5.2%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:000.5%—94.4%———
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:000.1%—1.7%——2.4%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:000.5%—0.5%———
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:000.7%0.0%42.6%——1.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:000.0%—23.9%———
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:000.0%15.3%11.5%0.0%—0.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:000.2%—2.2%———
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.4%10.0%6.4%—0.4%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%—1.0%———
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.4%6.0%2.0%—0.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:000.1%—9.5%———
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%1.2%0.2%—0.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.2%———
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.6%0.0%—0.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%2.1%———
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.9%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.9%——0.0%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%——0.0%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%———
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%——0.0%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend10%75.0°F4.3°F2026-09-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES4%69.7°F6.2°F2026-09-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single3%70.2°F5.5°F2026-09-17 00:00Pending
ICON3%61.8°F9.8°F2026-09-17 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%69.8°F5.1°F2026-09-16 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%72.1°F4.0°F2026-09-16 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260924-TMAX-GE81
Opened Sep 17 · 10:28 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗