KMSP / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Sep 25 · 02:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

93%

72%

67%

16%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 56.0¢Risks 56.00u

ICONNO 44.0¢Risks 44.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.00u · ICON −44.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	75.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	77.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	77.8%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	39.8%	—	—	72.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	93.1%	—	—	75.1%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	90.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	36.1%	21.3%	98.3%	—	—	73.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	95.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	81.6%	86.3%	26.3%	—	82.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	83.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	47.1%	30.4%	62.3%	—	61.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	17.9%	44.7%	24.5%	—	53.8%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	77.0%	18.9%	44.4%	54.0%	—	50.8%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	36.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	70.7%	18.9%	47.5%	36.9%	—	47.5%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	77.4%	54.3%	65.8%	—	—	34.2%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	69.3%	20.8%	37.9%	76.6%	—	40.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	62.4%	83.9%	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	49.1%	24.4%	81.6%	—	29.7%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	80.4%	60.3%	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	46.1%	24.7%	51.0%	—	38.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	49.0%	21.9%	85.4%	—	—	35.3%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	60.2%	7.4%	15.7%	62.2%	—	49.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	11.6%	61.5%	—	—	19.0%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	8.5%	80.2%	92.3%	—	32.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	10.2%	88.2%	23.1%	—	34.6%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	18.3%	20.7%	76.7%	—	35.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	56.0%	14.5%	53.6%	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	70.2%	11.2%	64.6%	0.7%	35.4%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	12.8%	13.5%	26.9%	—	37.3%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	3.2%	4.6%	14.9%	2.8%	24.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	5.8%	2.7%	21.1%	—	13.2%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	5.1%	2.7%	37.2%	7.3%	17.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	3.7%	1.8%	4.4%	—	13.6%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	3.1%	2.9%	15.2%	16.1%	8.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	2.8%	2.8%	29.5%	—	9.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	70.6°F	2.9°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	93%	70.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	67.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-24 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	67.3°F	4.1°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-24 14:00	Pending
National Blend	28%	63.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
ICON	16%	62.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260926-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 21 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗