KMSP / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Sep 25 · 02:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

93%

72%

67%

16%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 56.0¢Risks 56.00u

ICONNO 44.0¢Risks 44.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.00u · ICON −44.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T02:18:59+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-21T15:25:32+00:00	92.5%	95.1%	89.4%	58.8%	36.0%
2026-09-21T16:10:47+00:00	92.5%	95.1%	89.4%	58.8%	36.0%
2026-09-21T16:55:52+00:00	92.5%	95.1%	89.4%	58.8%	37.3%
2026-09-21T17:40:58+00:00	92.5%	95.1%	89.4%	58.8%	37.3%
2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:00	92.5%	95.1%	89.4%	58.8%	37.3%
2026-09-21T19:11:12+00:00	92.5%	95.1%	89.4%	58.8%	37.3%
2026-09-21T19:56:20+00:00	91.2%	95.1%	89.4%	20.6%	37.3%
2026-09-21T20:41:31+00:00	91.2%	95.1%	89.4%	20.6%	37.3%
2026-09-21T21:26:37+00:00	91.2%	95.1%	89.4%	20.6%	37.3%
2026-09-21T22:11:43+00:00	91.2%	95.1%	89.4%	20.6%	37.3%
2026-09-21T22:56:48+00:00	91.2%	95.1%	89.4%	20.6%	37.3%
2026-09-21T23:41:53+00:00	91.2%	93.3%	89.4%	20.6%	37.3%
2026-09-22T00:26:58+00:00	91.2%	93.3%	89.4%	20.6%	37.3%
2026-09-22T01:12:07+00:00	91.2%	93.3%	89.4%	20.6%	37.3%
2026-09-22T01:57:13+00:00	93.8%	93.3%	89.4%	20.6%	37.3%
2026-09-22T02:42:28+00:00	93.8%	93.3%	89.4%	20.6%	37.3%
2026-09-22T03:27:45+00:00	93.8%	93.3%	89.4%	20.6%	37.3%
2026-09-22T04:12:50+00:00	93.8%	93.3%	89.4%	20.6%	37.3%
2026-09-22T04:57:59+00:00	93.8%	93.3%	89.4%	20.6%	31.4%
2026-09-22T05:43:25+00:00	93.8%	93.3%	89.4%	20.6%	31.4%
2026-09-22T06:28:41+00:00	93.8%	93.3%	89.4%	20.6%	31.4%
2026-09-22T07:13:49+00:00	93.8%	93.3%	89.4%	20.6%	31.4%
2026-09-22T07:59:13+00:00	91.8%	93.3%	89.4%	33.9%	31.4%
2026-09-22T08:44:41+00:00	91.8%	93.3%	89.4%	33.9%	31.4%
2026-09-22T09:29:46+00:00	91.8%	93.3%	89.4%	33.9%	31.4%
2026-09-22T10:14:52+00:00	91.8%	93.3%	89.4%	33.9%	31.4%
2026-09-22T11:00:02+00:00	91.8%	90.7%	89.4%	33.9%	31.4%
2026-09-22T11:45:11+00:00	91.8%	90.7%	89.4%	33.9%	31.4%
2026-09-22T12:30:16+00:00	91.8%	90.7%	89.4%	33.9%	31.4%
2026-09-22T13:15:21+00:00	91.8%	90.7%	89.4%	33.9%	31.4%
2026-09-22T14:00:29+00:00	88.5%	90.7%	89.4%	33.9%	31.4%
2026-09-22T14:47:14+00:00	88.2%	90.7%	89.4%	33.9%	31.4%
2026-09-22T15:32:24+00:00	88.2%	90.7%	89.4%	33.9%	31.4%
2026-09-22T16:17:41+00:00	88.2%	90.7%	89.4%	33.9%	31.4%
2026-09-22T17:02:46+00:00	88.2%	90.7%	89.4%	33.9%	60.8%
2026-09-22T17:47:52+00:00	88.2%	90.7%	89.4%	33.9%	60.8%
2026-09-22T18:32:57+00:00	88.2%	90.7%	89.4%	33.9%	60.8%
2026-09-22T19:18:06+00:00	88.2%	90.7%	89.4%	33.9%	60.8%
2026-09-22T20:03:11+00:00	52.6%	90.7%	89.4%	33.9%	60.8%
2026-09-22T20:48:16+00:00	52.6%	90.7%	89.4%	33.9%	60.8%
2026-09-22T21:33:24+00:00	52.6%	90.7%	89.4%	33.9%	60.8%
2026-09-22T22:18:32+00:00	52.6%	90.7%	89.4%	33.9%	60.8%
2026-09-22T23:03:39+00:00	52.6%	90.7%	89.4%	33.9%	60.8%
2026-09-22T23:48:45+00:00	52.6%	86.3%	93.0%	33.9%	60.8%
2026-09-23T00:33:51+00:00	52.6%	86.3%	93.0%	33.9%	60.8%
2026-09-23T01:18:59+00:00	52.6%	86.3%	93.0%	33.9%	60.8%
2026-09-23T02:04:05+00:00	50.9%	86.3%	93.0%	33.9%	60.8%
2026-09-23T02:49:19+00:00	50.9%	86.3%	93.0%	33.9%	60.8%
2026-09-24T15:47:18+00:00	84.2%	95.3%	95.8%	64.2%	6.3%
2026-09-24T16:32:28+00:00	84.2%	95.3%	95.8%	64.2%	6.3%
2026-09-24T17:17:33+00:00	84.2%	95.3%	95.0%	64.2%	6.3%
2026-09-24T18:02:39+00:00	84.2%	95.3%	95.0%	64.2%	6.3%
2026-09-24T18:47:44+00:00	84.2%	95.3%	95.0%	64.2%	6.3%
2026-09-24T19:32:54+00:00	65.8%	95.3%	95.0%	64.2%	16.1%
2026-09-24T20:18:02+00:00	65.8%	95.3%	95.0%	64.2%	16.1%
2026-09-24T21:03:07+00:00	65.8%	95.3%	95.0%	64.2%	16.1%
2026-09-24T21:48:12+00:00	65.8%	95.3%	95.0%	64.2%	16.1%
2026-09-24T22:33:18+00:00	65.8%	95.3%	95.0%	66.9%	16.1%
2026-09-24T23:18:25+00:00	65.8%	95.9%	93.3%	66.9%	16.1%
2026-09-25T00:03:30+00:00	65.8%	95.9%	93.3%	66.9%	16.1%
2026-09-25T00:48:44+00:00	65.8%	95.9%	93.3%	66.9%	16.1%
2026-09-25T01:33:52+00:00	71.7%	95.9%	93.3%	66.9%	16.1%
2026-09-25T02:18:59+00:00	71.7%	95.9%	93.3%	66.9%	16.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	70.6°F	2.9°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	93%	70.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	67.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-24 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	67.3°F	4.1°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-24 14:00	Pending
National Blend	28%	63.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
ICON	16%	62.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260926-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 21 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗