KMSP / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Sep 21 · 02:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

48%

23%

23%

10%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 34.0¢Risks 34.00u

ICONNO 66.0¢Risks 66.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +66.00u · ICON −66.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	40.4%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	39.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	9.3%	—	—	31.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	58.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	64.7%	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	—	—	—	24.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	55.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	2.4%	82.4%	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	69.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	36.9%	44.4%	3.1%	—	37.6%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	22.6%	8.7%	3.6%	16.5%	—	16.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	1.2%	7.0%	2.1%	—	10.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	1.1%	6.2%	9.7%	—	8.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	0.9%	6.3%	3.6%	—	6.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	8.2%	13.7%	—	—	2.8%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	0.9%	3.2%	20.8%	—	3.8%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	27.9%	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	5.0%	1.0%	23.7%	—	1.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	21.0%	8.1%	—	—	1.8%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	3.5%	0.8%	4.6%	—	2.3%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	0.6%	24.1%	—	—	1.7%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	0.1%	0.2%	6.7%	—	3.4%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.1%	5.8%	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	0.1%	14.3%	31.1%	—	0.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	0.1%	21.4%	0.3%	—	0.9%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	9.4%	—	0.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.5%	0.1%	2.2%	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.9%	0.0%	3.5%	0.0%	0.5%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	—	0.5%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	69%	74.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	57%	73.5°F	5.3°F	2026-09-20 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-20 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	72.3°F	5.4°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	69.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	67.6°F	6.6°F	2026-09-20 12:00	Pending
ICON	10%	63.9°F	6.8°F	2026-09-20 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260926-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 19 · 07:39 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗