KMSP / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 21 · 04:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

13%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 6.7¢Risks 3.33u

EPSNO 93.3¢Risks 46.67u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.67u · EPS −46.67u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T04:51:11+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-19T07:39:58+00:00	1.8%	1.5%	9.1%	13.0%	6.8%
2026-09-19T08:25:27+00:00	1.8%	1.5%	9.1%	13.0%	6.8%
2026-09-19T09:10:36+00:00	1.8%	1.5%	9.1%	13.0%	6.8%
2026-09-19T09:55:41+00:00	1.8%	1.5%	9.1%	13.0%	6.8%
2026-09-19T10:40:47+00:00	1.8%	1.5%	9.1%	13.0%	6.8%
2026-09-19T11:25:55+00:00	1.8%	1.2%	9.1%	13.0%	6.8%
2026-09-19T12:11:04+00:00	1.8%	1.2%	9.1%	13.0%	6.8%
2026-09-19T12:56:09+00:00	1.8%	1.2%	9.1%	13.0%	6.8%
2026-09-19T13:41:15+00:00	12.4%	1.2%	9.1%	13.0%	6.8%
2026-09-19T14:27:50+00:00	12.4%	1.2%	9.1%	13.0%	6.8%
2026-09-19T15:13:02+00:00	12.4%	1.2%	9.1%	13.0%	6.8%
2026-09-19T15:58:14+00:00	12.4%	1.2%	9.1%	13.0%	6.8%
2026-09-19T16:43:19+00:00	12.4%	1.2%	9.1%	13.0%	31.2%
2026-09-19T17:28:25+00:00	12.4%	1.2%	9.1%	13.0%	31.2%
2026-09-19T18:13:29+00:00	12.4%	1.2%	9.1%	13.0%	31.2%
2026-09-19T18:58:39+00:00	12.4%	1.2%	9.1%	13.0%	31.2%
2026-09-19T19:43:44+00:00	7.5%	1.2%	9.1%	11.4%	31.2%
2026-09-19T20:28:48+00:00	7.5%	1.2%	9.1%	11.4%	31.2%
2026-09-19T21:13:53+00:00	7.5%	1.2%	9.1%	11.4%	31.2%
2026-09-19T21:58:58+00:00	7.5%	1.2%	9.1%	11.4%	31.2%
2026-09-19T22:44:03+00:00	7.5%	1.2%	9.1%	11.4%	31.2%
2026-09-19T23:29:09+00:00	7.5%	0.8%	9.1%	11.4%	31.2%
2026-09-20T00:14:14+00:00	7.5%	0.8%	9.1%	11.4%	31.2%
2026-09-20T00:59:23+00:00	7.5%	0.8%	9.1%	11.4%	31.2%
2026-09-20T01:44:31+00:00	13.6%	0.8%	9.1%	11.4%	31.2%
2026-09-20T02:29:38+00:00	13.6%	0.8%	9.1%	11.4%	31.2%
2026-09-20T03:14:49+00:00	13.6%	0.8%	9.1%	11.4%	31.2%
2026-09-20T04:00:04+00:00	13.6%	0.8%	9.1%	11.4%	31.2%
2026-09-20T04:45:09+00:00	13.6%	0.8%	9.1%	11.4%	5.1%
2026-09-20T05:30:15+00:00	13.6%	0.8%	9.1%	11.4%	5.1%
2026-09-20T06:15:20+00:00	13.6%	0.8%	9.1%	11.4%	5.1%
2026-09-20T07:00:27+00:00	13.6%	0.8%	9.1%	11.4%	5.1%
2026-09-20T07:45:47+00:00	10.1%	0.8%	9.1%	0.8%	5.1%
2026-09-20T08:31:13+00:00	10.1%	0.8%	9.1%	0.8%	5.1%
2026-09-20T09:16:18+00:00	10.1%	0.8%	9.1%	0.8%	5.1%
2026-09-20T10:01:22+00:00	10.1%	0.8%	9.1%	0.8%	5.1%
2026-09-20T10:46:27+00:00	10.1%	0.8%	9.1%	0.8%	5.1%
2026-09-20T11:31:35+00:00	10.1%	0.6%	9.1%	0.8%	5.1%
2026-09-20T12:16:52+00:00	10.1%	0.6%	9.1%	0.8%	5.1%
2026-09-20T13:01:57+00:00	10.1%	0.6%	9.1%	0.8%	5.1%
2026-09-20T13:47:04+00:00	9.1%	0.6%	9.1%	0.8%	5.1%
2026-09-20T14:33:35+00:00	9.1%	0.6%	9.2%	0.8%	5.1%
2026-09-20T15:18:52+00:00	9.1%	0.6%	9.2%	0.8%	5.1%
2026-09-20T16:04:07+00:00	9.1%	0.6%	9.2%	0.8%	5.1%
2026-09-20T16:49:13+00:00	9.1%	0.6%	9.2%	0.8%	1.1%
2026-09-20T17:34:18+00:00	9.1%	0.6%	9.2%	0.8%	1.1%
2026-09-20T18:19:23+00:00	9.1%	0.6%	9.2%	0.8%	1.1%
2026-09-20T19:04:31+00:00	9.1%	0.6%	9.2%	0.8%	1.1%
2026-09-20T19:49:36+00:00	13.8%	0.6%	9.2%	0.8%	1.1%
2026-09-20T20:34:42+00:00	13.8%	0.6%	9.2%	0.8%	1.1%
2026-09-20T21:19:46+00:00	13.8%	0.6%	9.2%	0.8%	1.1%
2026-09-20T22:04:50+00:00	13.8%	0.6%	9.2%	0.8%	1.1%
2026-09-20T22:49:59+00:00	13.8%	0.6%	9.2%	3.6%	1.1%
2026-09-20T23:35:05+00:00	13.8%	0.3%	9.2%	3.6%	1.1%
2026-09-21T00:20:13+00:00	13.8%	0.3%	9.2%	3.6%	1.1%
2026-09-21T01:05:24+00:00	13.8%	0.3%	9.2%	3.6%	1.1%
2026-09-21T01:50:30+00:00	13.0%	0.3%	9.2%	3.6%	1.1%
2026-09-21T02:35:35+00:00	13.0%	0.3%	9.2%	3.6%	1.1%
2026-09-21T03:20:48+00:00	13.0%	0.3%	9.2%	3.6%	1.1%
2026-09-21T04:06:01+00:00	13.0%	0.3%	9.2%	3.6%	1.1%
2026-09-21T04:51:11+00:00	13.0%	0.3%	9.2%	3.6%	0.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	13%	73.5°F	5.3°F	2026-09-20 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	72.3°F	5.4°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	71.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-21 02:00	Pending
National Blend	4%	74.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	67.6°F	6.6°F	2026-09-20 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	69.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	63.4°F	5.9°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260926-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 19 · 07:39 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗