KMSP / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Sep 24 · 02:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

37%

36%

12%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 32.8¢Risks 32.75u

HRESNO 67.2¢Risks 67.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +67.25u · HRES −67.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	46.7%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	—	—	—	46.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	44.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	27.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	7.6%	—	—	40.7%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	73.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	59.7%	—	—	50.6%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	53.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	2.3%	—	—	—	45.3%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	69.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	48.6%	16.6%	78.1%	4.9%	—	38.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	47.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	13.2%	33.0%	27.9%	—	34.3%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	65.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	34.4%	61.3%	79.5%	—	46.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	76.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	62.5%	39.7%	35.2%	—	58.7%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	6.6%	18.9%	37.7%	—	55.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	1.3%	30.3%	—	—	1.0%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	4.3%	31.4%	42.2%	—	28.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	15.5%	37.6%	33.4%	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	5.8%	38.2%	41.8%	—	16.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	6.1%	61.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	14.2%	9.8%	16.5%	54.9%	—	28.7%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	6.3%	17.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	13.4%	62.2%	11.3%	—	19.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	6.2%	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	2.9%	22.1%	7.0%	—	21.3%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	0.6%	26.7%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	44.2%	27.0%	13.4%	—	37.4%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	60.7%	2.2%	10.2%	—	37.0%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	40.1%	25.6%	8.0%	0.0%	42.6%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	57.7%	48.7%	12.8%	—	51.3%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	21.0%	48.7%	26.2%	11.3%	10.1%	51.3%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	43.1%	32.5%	26.5%	—	43.1%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	48.5%	21.2%	16.3%	6.8%	35.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	27.2%	60.5%	57.5%	20.2%	—	54.5%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	31.7%	54.7%	5.7%	15.2%	50.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	32.4%	51.6%	6.8%	—	20.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	62%	71.7°F	3.9°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-23 14:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	71.0°F	4.7°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	69.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	36%	68.9°F	4.6°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending
ICON	12%	65.0°F	4.7°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	61.4°F	5.0°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260927-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 22 · 02:42 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗