KMSP / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Sep 24 · 02:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

37%

36%

12%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 32.8¢Risks 32.75u

HRESNO 67.2¢Risks 67.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +67.25u · HRES −67.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T02:11:12+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-22T02:42:28+00:00	44.0%	30.1%	72.6%	45.8%	56.4%
2026-09-22T03:27:45+00:00	44.0%	30.1%	72.6%	45.8%	56.4%
2026-09-22T04:12:50+00:00	44.0%	30.1%	72.6%	45.8%	56.4%
2026-09-22T04:57:59+00:00	44.0%	30.1%	72.6%	45.8%	74.8%
2026-09-22T05:43:25+00:00	44.0%	30.1%	72.6%	45.8%	74.8%
2026-09-22T06:28:41+00:00	44.0%	30.1%	72.6%	45.8%	74.8%
2026-09-22T07:13:49+00:00	44.0%	30.1%	72.6%	45.8%	74.8%
2026-09-22T07:59:13+00:00	43.6%	30.1%	72.6%	79.4%	74.8%
2026-09-22T08:44:41+00:00	43.6%	30.1%	72.6%	79.4%	74.8%
2026-09-22T09:29:46+00:00	43.6%	30.1%	72.6%	79.4%	74.8%
2026-09-22T10:14:52+00:00	43.6%	30.1%	72.6%	79.4%	74.8%
2026-09-22T11:00:02+00:00	43.6%	62.1%	72.6%	79.4%	74.8%
2026-09-22T11:45:11+00:00	43.6%	62.1%	72.6%	79.4%	74.8%
2026-09-22T12:30:16+00:00	43.6%	62.1%	72.6%	79.4%	74.8%
2026-09-22T13:15:21+00:00	43.6%	62.1%	72.6%	79.4%	74.8%
2026-09-22T14:00:29+00:00	43.6%	62.1%	72.6%	79.4%	74.8%
2026-09-22T14:47:14+00:00	43.6%	62.1%	72.6%	79.4%	74.6%
2026-09-22T15:32:24+00:00	43.6%	62.1%	72.6%	79.4%	74.6%
2026-09-22T16:17:41+00:00	43.6%	62.1%	72.6%	79.4%	74.6%
2026-09-22T17:02:46+00:00	43.6%	62.1%	72.6%	79.4%	20.2%
2026-09-22T17:47:52+00:00	43.6%	62.1%	72.6%	79.4%	20.2%
2026-09-22T18:32:57+00:00	43.6%	62.1%	72.6%	79.4%	20.2%
2026-09-22T19:18:06+00:00	43.6%	62.1%	72.6%	79.4%	20.2%
2026-09-22T20:03:11+00:00	42.8%	62.1%	72.6%	79.4%	20.2%
2026-09-22T20:48:16+00:00	42.8%	62.1%	72.6%	79.4%	20.2%
2026-09-22T21:33:24+00:00	42.8%	62.1%	72.6%	79.4%	20.2%
2026-09-22T22:18:32+00:00	42.8%	62.1%	72.6%	79.4%	20.2%
2026-09-22T23:03:39+00:00	42.8%	62.1%	72.6%	79.4%	20.2%
2026-09-22T23:48:45+00:00	42.8%	58.1%	67.5%	79.4%	20.2%
2026-09-23T00:33:51+00:00	42.8%	58.1%	67.5%	79.4%	20.2%
2026-09-23T01:18:59+00:00	42.8%	58.1%	67.5%	79.4%	20.2%
2026-09-23T02:04:05+00:00	47.6%	58.1%	67.5%	79.4%	20.2%
2026-09-23T02:49:19+00:00	47.6%	58.1%	67.5%	79.4%	20.2%
2026-09-23T03:34:37+00:00	47.6%	58.1%	67.5%	79.4%	20.2%
2026-09-23T04:19:44+00:00	47.6%	58.1%	67.5%	79.4%	20.2%
2026-09-23T05:04:54+00:00	47.6%	58.1%	67.5%	75.3%	8.8%
2026-09-23T05:50:05+00:00	47.6%	58.1%	67.5%	75.3%	8.8%
2026-09-23T06:35:10+00:00	47.6%	58.1%	67.5%	75.3%	8.8%
2026-09-23T07:20:18+00:00	47.6%	58.1%	67.5%	75.3%	8.8%
2026-09-23T08:05:44+00:00	45.7%	58.1%	67.5%	27.0%	8.8%
2026-09-23T08:51:12+00:00	45.7%	58.1%	67.5%	27.0%	8.8%
2026-09-23T09:36:17+00:00	45.7%	58.1%	67.5%	27.0%	8.8%
2026-09-23T10:21:21+00:00	45.7%	58.1%	67.5%	27.0%	8.8%
2026-09-23T11:06:29+00:00	45.7%	36.8%	65.8%	27.0%	8.8%
2026-09-23T11:51:39+00:00	45.7%	36.8%	65.8%	27.0%	8.8%
2026-09-23T12:36:44+00:00	45.7%	36.8%	65.8%	27.0%	8.8%
2026-09-23T13:21:49+00:00	45.7%	36.8%	65.8%	27.0%	8.8%
2026-09-23T14:09:06+00:00	48.3%	36.8%	64.8%	26.9%	8.5%
2026-09-23T14:54:19+00:00	48.3%	36.8%	64.8%	26.9%	8.5%
2026-09-23T15:39:31+00:00	48.3%	35.9%	64.8%	26.9%	8.5%
2026-09-23T16:24:38+00:00	48.3%	35.9%	64.8%	26.9%	8.5%
2026-09-23T17:09:48+00:00	48.3%	35.9%	62.0%	26.9%	12.2%
2026-09-23T17:54:55+00:00	48.3%	35.9%	62.0%	26.9%	12.2%
2026-09-23T18:40:01+00:00	48.3%	35.9%	62.0%	26.9%	12.2%
2026-09-23T19:25:12+00:00	40.6%	35.9%	62.0%	3.5%	12.2%
2026-09-23T20:10:19+00:00	40.6%	35.9%	62.0%	3.5%	12.2%
2026-09-23T20:55:25+00:00	40.6%	35.9%	62.0%	3.5%	12.2%
2026-09-23T21:40:31+00:00	40.6%	35.9%	62.0%	3.5%	12.2%
2026-09-23T22:25:37+00:00	40.6%	35.9%	62.0%	3.5%	12.2%
2026-09-23T23:10:43+00:00	40.6%	36.7%	62.0%	3.5%	12.2%
2026-09-23T23:55:49+00:00	40.6%	36.7%	62.0%	3.5%	12.2%
2026-09-24T00:40:55+00:00	40.6%	36.7%	62.0%	3.5%	12.2%
2026-09-24T01:26:06+00:00	40.6%	36.7%	62.0%	3.5%	12.2%
2026-09-24T02:11:12+00:00	36.5%	36.7%	62.0%	3.5%	12.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	62%	71.7°F	3.9°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-23 14:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	71.0°F	4.7°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	69.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	36%	68.9°F	4.6°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending
ICON	12%	65.0°F	4.7°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	61.4°F	5.0°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260927-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 22 · 02:42 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗