KMSP / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Sep 21 · 02:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

53%

43%

33%

20%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 40.6¢Risks 40.60u

EPSNO 59.4¢Risks 59.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +59.40u · EPS −59.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	30.4%	—	—	—	—	29.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	27.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	2.8%	—	—	23.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	40.3%	—	—	31.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	23.3%	0.6%	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	6.7%	59.7%	1.4%	—	20.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	4.8%	16.1%	12.8%	—	17.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	43.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	16.4%	38.7%	59.8%	—	25.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	39.0%	19.5%	16.4%	—	35.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	26.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	1.6%	6.6%	17.3%	—	30.8%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	0.2%	12.3%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	0.9%	12.7%	19.6%	—	10.9%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	16.1%	13.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	1.2%	16.0%	18.4%	—	4.6%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	1.2%	33.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	2.1%	4.4%	27.1%	—	9.8%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	1.1%	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	3.0%	32.1%	2.4%	—	4.9%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	1.0%	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.3%	5.6%	1.1%	—	5.3%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.0%	7.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	15.3%	6.8%	2.4%	—	11.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	26.3%	0.2%	1.5%	—	10.8%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	11.8%	5.5%	0.9%	0.0%	13.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	21.9%	15.8%	1.8%	—	17.4%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	14.9%	5.0%	1.3%	1.1%	16.5%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	11.1%	6.7%	4.7%	—	11.1%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	13.0%	2.9%	1.9%	0.5%	7.3%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	19.2%	17.2%	2.4%	—	15.3%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	4.8%	14.2%	0.3%	1.3%	11.7%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.5%	11.5%	0.3%	—	1.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	61%	75.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-20 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	74.0°F	3.8°F	2026-09-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	73.9°F	5.6°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	72.4°F	6.2°F	2026-09-20 12:00	Pending
ICON	33%	69.1°F	9.8°F	2026-09-20 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	70.2°F	4.0°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260927-TMAX-GE74
Opened Sep 20 · 11:31 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 74°F · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗