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KMSP / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 23 · 07:20 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
20%
EPS
7%
WN2
4%
AIFS
3%
ICON
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 9.8¢Risks 4.92u
VS
ICONNO 90.1¢Risks 45.07u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.07u · ICON −45.07u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 83.5% · 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.3% · 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.2% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.9% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.4% · 2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.6% · 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.9% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.7% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.3% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.7% · 2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.0% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.9% · 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.0% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.9% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.5% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.8% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.6% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.0% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.0% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.1% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.2% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.3% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 18.4% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.5% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.4% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.5% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.1% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.9% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.5% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.9% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.0% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.1% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.6% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.3% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.3% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.2% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.4% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.3% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.3% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.0% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.0% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.7% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.9% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:0009-12 12:0009-20 06:0009-27 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:005.9%————0.9%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:0083.5%—————
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:002.8%————17.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:0039.0%—————
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:0015.6%————14.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:0012.3%—————
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:004.8%————11.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:0012.0%—————
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:0016.2%————13.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:006.8%—————
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:0015.2%————14.6%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:001.1%—————
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:001.2%————12.3%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:0027.9%—————
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:004.8%————12.3%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:0020.4%—————
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:006.4%————10.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:001.0%—————
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:000.5%————9.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:008.6%————8.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:005.7%—————
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:000.2%————7.1%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:000.4%—6.7%———
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:000.2%————3.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:000.4%—2.3%———
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:000.8%—0.2%——4.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:001.1%—20.7%———
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:004.0%—11.0%——7.3%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:0011.6%—7.9%———
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:004.0%0.0%———5.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:002.2%—15.0%———
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:005.2%0.5%20.9%0.1%—3.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:006.6%—4.5%———
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:001.3%0.3%1.8%1.3%—2.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:000.8%—9.8%———
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:000.3%1.7%7.6%18.4%—3.5%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:000.3%—15.0%———
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:000.2%6.9%2.0%1.5%—5.7%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:000.2%—3.1%———
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.3%1.4%—3.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:000.2%0.0%0.7%——0.0%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.7%1.5%—0.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.9%0.7%——0.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.9%1.1%—0.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%3.2%———
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.1%1.9%—0.3%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.1%———
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%2.2%0.0%—0.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%———
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.3%0.1%0.0%—0.2%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.7%0.0%0.0%—0.1%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.3%0.2%0.0%—0.2%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%—0.1%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.1%0.0%—0.1%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES20%74.5°F5.8°F2026-09-22 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble7%71.6°F5.4°F2026-09-22 00:00Pending
National Blend6%71.0°F5.5°F2026-09-23 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 24%72.4°F4.2°F2026-09-22 12:00Pending
AIFS Single3%70.2°F5.0°F2026-09-22 18:00Pending
NWS forecast3%71.0°F4.5°F2026-09-23 02:00Pending
ICON<1%64.1°F4.7°F2026-09-23 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260927-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 20 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗