KMSP / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Sep 28 · 02:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

29%

22%

17%

12%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 27.1¢Risks 27.10u

ICONNO 72.9¢Risks 72.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +72.90u · ICON −72.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	26.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	26.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	15.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	21.4%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	0.2%	—	—	25.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	60.9%	—	—	18.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	72.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	0.0%	62.6%	—	—	24.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	56.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	14.9%	44.4%	1.4%	—	33.6%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	44.2%	50.7%	41.3%	—	31.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	14.6%	53.0%	22.8%	—	34.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	18.4%	69.8%	41.3%	—	21.2%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	36.1%	62.3%	39.3%	—	17.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	2.8%	31.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	14.6%	49.1%	40.5%	—	22.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	10.3%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	9.4%	61.8%	15.4%	—	15.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	5.9%	65.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	4.0%	72.1%	10.7%	—	17.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	12.4%	49.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	34.9%	60.2%	18.3%	—	21.9%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	43.7%	65.5%	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	39.2%	72.7%	2.4%	—	20.6%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	60.0%	81.0%	0.1%	—	26.7%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	34.1%	86.0%	6.8%	—	24.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	54.8%	69.6%	15.2%	—	19.9%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	45.0%	80.9%	15.1%	43.8%	16.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	30.2%	81.8%	25.9%	—	26.9%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	17.3%	28.4%	19.1%	0.0%	15.7%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	13.9%	36.3%	15.6%	—	3.5%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	9.5%	30.5%	3.2%	6.8%	11.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	8.0%	32.5%	1.8%	—	9.2%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	15.2%	37.6%	2.0%	6.1%	7.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	2.8%	30.9%	0.3%	—	6.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-27 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	42%	73.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	72.4°F	3.7°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	71.3°F	4.1°F	2026-09-27 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	71.4°F	3.3°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
ICON	12%	70.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260928-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 27 · 14:40 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 75°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗