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KMSP / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Sep 28 · 02:42 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
42%
HRES
29%
AIFS
22%
EPS
17%
ICON
12%
Consensus
28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 27.1¢Risks 27.10u
VS
ICONNO 72.9¢Risks 72.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +72.90u · ICON −72.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 43.2% · 2026-09-27T14:40:08+00:00AIFS Single: 43.2% · 2026-09-27T15:25:29+00:00AIFS Single: 43.2% · 2026-09-27T16:10:34+00:00AIFS Single: 43.2% · 2026-09-27T16:55:40+00:00AIFS Single: 43.2% · 2026-09-27T17:40:48+00:00AIFS Single: 43.2% · 2026-09-27T18:26:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.2% · 2026-09-27T19:11:09+00:00AIFS Single: 37.4% · 2026-09-27T19:56:18+00:00AIFS Single: 37.4% · 2026-09-27T20:41:28+00:00AIFS Single: 37.4% · 2026-09-27T21:26:32+00:00AIFS Single: 37.4% · 2026-09-27T22:11:37+00:00AIFS Single: 37.4% · 2026-09-27T22:56:44+00:00AIFS Single: 37.4% · 2026-09-27T23:41:50+00:00AIFS Single: 37.4% · 2026-09-28T00:26:56+00:00AIFS Single: 37.4% · 2026-09-28T01:12:05+00:00AIFS Single: 21.5% · 2026-09-28T01:57:12+00:00AIFS Single: 21.5% · 2026-09-28T02:42:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.9% · 2026-09-27T14:40:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.9% · 2026-09-27T15:25:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.9% · 2026-09-27T16:10:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.9% · 2026-09-27T16:55:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.9% · 2026-09-27T17:40:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.9% · 2026-09-27T18:26:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.9% · 2026-09-27T19:11:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.9% · 2026-09-27T19:56:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.9% · 2026-09-27T20:41:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.9% · 2026-09-27T21:26:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.9% · 2026-09-27T22:11:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.9% · 2026-09-27T22:56:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.3% · 2026-09-27T23:41:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.3% · 2026-09-28T00:26:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.3% · 2026-09-28T01:12:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.3% · 2026-09-28T01:57:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.3% · 2026-09-28T02:42:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.6% · 2026-09-27T14:40:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.6% · 2026-09-27T15:25:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.6% · 2026-09-27T16:10:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.6% · 2026-09-27T16:55:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.0% · 2026-09-27T17:40:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.0% · 2026-09-27T18:26:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.0% · 2026-09-27T19:11:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.0% · 2026-09-27T19:56:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.0% · 2026-09-27T20:41:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.0% · 2026-09-27T21:26:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.0% · 2026-09-27T22:11:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.0% · 2026-09-27T22:56:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.9% · 2026-09-27T23:41:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.9% · 2026-09-28T00:26:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.9% · 2026-09-28T01:12:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.9% · 2026-09-28T01:57:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.9% · 2026-09-28T02:42:18+00:00IFS HRES: 33.4% · 2026-09-27T14:40:08+00:00IFS HRES: 33.4% · 2026-09-27T15:25:29+00:00IFS HRES: 33.4% · 2026-09-27T16:10:34+00:00IFS HRES: 33.4% · 2026-09-27T16:55:40+00:00IFS HRES: 33.4% · 2026-09-27T17:40:48+00:00IFS HRES: 33.4% · 2026-09-27T18:26:00+00:00IFS HRES: 33.4% · 2026-09-27T19:11:09+00:00IFS HRES: 28.7% · 2026-09-27T19:56:18+00:00IFS HRES: 28.7% · 2026-09-27T20:41:28+00:00IFS HRES: 28.7% · 2026-09-27T21:26:32+00:00IFS HRES: 28.7% · 2026-09-27T22:11:37+00:00IFS HRES: 28.7% · 2026-09-27T22:56:44+00:00IFS HRES: 28.7% · 2026-09-27T23:41:50+00:00IFS HRES: 28.7% · 2026-09-28T00:26:56+00:00IFS HRES: 28.7% · 2026-09-28T01:12:05+00:00IFS HRES: 28.7% · 2026-09-28T01:57:12+00:00IFS HRES: 28.7% · 2026-09-28T02:42:18+00:00ICON: 31.5% · 2026-09-27T14:40:08+00:00ICON: 31.5% · 2026-09-27T15:25:29+00:00ICON: 31.5% · 2026-09-27T16:10:34+00:00ICON: 12.3% · 2026-09-27T16:55:40+00:00ICON: 12.3% · 2026-09-27T17:40:48+00:00ICON: 12.3% · 2026-09-27T18:26:00+00:00ICON: 12.3% · 2026-09-27T19:11:09+00:00ICON: 12.3% · 2026-09-27T19:56:18+00:00ICON: 12.3% · 2026-09-27T20:41:28+00:00ICON: 12.3% · 2026-09-27T21:26:32+00:00ICON: 12.3% · 2026-09-27T22:11:37+00:00ICON: 12.3% · 2026-09-27T22:56:44+00:00ICON: 12.3% · 2026-09-27T23:41:50+00:00ICON: 12.3% · 2026-09-28T00:26:56+00:00ICON: 12.3% · 2026-09-28T01:12:05+00:00ICON: 12.3% · 2026-09-28T01:57:12+00:00ICON: 12.3% · 2026-09-28T02:42:18+00:0009-27 14:4009-27 20:4109-28 02:42
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-28T02:42:18+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-27T14:40:08+00:0043.2%19.9%39.6%33.4%31.5%
2026-09-27T15:25:29+00:0043.2%19.9%39.6%33.4%31.5%
2026-09-27T16:10:34+00:0043.2%19.9%39.6%33.4%31.5%
2026-09-27T16:55:40+00:0043.2%19.9%39.6%33.4%12.3%
2026-09-27T17:40:48+00:0043.2%19.9%43.0%33.4%12.3%
2026-09-27T18:26:00+00:0043.2%19.9%43.0%33.4%12.3%
2026-09-27T19:11:09+00:0043.2%19.9%43.0%33.4%12.3%
2026-09-27T19:56:18+00:0037.4%19.9%43.0%28.7%12.3%
2026-09-27T20:41:28+00:0037.4%19.9%43.0%28.7%12.3%
2026-09-27T21:26:32+00:0037.4%19.9%43.0%28.7%12.3%
2026-09-27T22:11:37+00:0037.4%19.9%43.0%28.7%12.3%
2026-09-27T22:56:44+00:0037.4%19.9%43.0%28.7%12.3%
2026-09-27T23:41:50+00:0037.4%17.3%41.9%28.7%12.3%
2026-09-28T00:26:56+00:0037.4%17.3%41.9%28.7%12.3%
2026-09-28T01:12:05+00:0037.4%17.3%41.9%28.7%12.3%
2026-09-28T01:57:12+00:0021.5%17.3%41.9%28.7%12.3%
2026-09-28T02:42:18+00:0021.5%17.3%41.9%28.7%12.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast56%75.0°F3.1°F2026-09-27 14:00Pending
WeatherNext 242%73.8°F3.4°F2026-09-27 12:00Pending
National Blend41%74.0°F2.2°F2026-09-27 06:00Pending
IFS HRES29%72.4°F3.7°F2026-09-27 12:00Pending
AIFS Single22%71.3°F4.1°F2026-09-27 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble17%71.4°F3.3°F2026-09-27 00:00Pending
ICON12%70.4°F3.5°F2026-09-27 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260928-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 27 · 14:40 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 75°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗