KMSP / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 25 · 03:49 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

12%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 6.4¢Risks 3.20u

EPSNO 93.6¢Risks 46.80u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.80u · EPS −46.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	4.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	7.6%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	29.5%	—	—	4.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	0.0%	30.0%	—	—	6.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	2.7%	15.3%	0.1%	—	9.6%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	34.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	14.4%	18.4%	12.8%	—	7.9%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	28.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.2%	18.9%	4.4%	—	8.7%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	2.9%	31.6%	11.1%	—	3.6%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	8.0%	23.2%	9.3%	—	2.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.1%	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.6%	13.1%	9.0%	—	3.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.9%	13.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.7%	19.6%	1.5%	—	1.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	26.3%	0.7%	—	1.5%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.8%	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.7%	15.1%	1.4%	—	1.9%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.8%	17.6%	—	—	1.9%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.0%	22.1%	0.0%	—	1.4%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	12.3%	29.6%	0.0%	—	2.1%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.1%	35.2%	0.2%	—	1.5%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	8.2%	16.0%	0.6%	—	0.9%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.6%	24.6%	0.5%	4.3%	0.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.6%	23.8%	1.2%	—	1.3%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	1.2%	0.5%	0.0%	0.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	1.8%	0.3%	—	0.0%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	1.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.9%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	1.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	12%	74.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	72.9°F	5.0°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
National Blend	8%	72.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	70.8°F	4.6°F	2026-09-24 18:00	Pending
ICON	2%	70.1°F	4.7°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-25 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	71.5°F	3.5°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260928-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 21 · 10:52 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗