KMSP / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 25 · 03:49 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

12%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 6.4¢Risks 3.20u

EPSNO 93.6¢Risks 46.80u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.80u · EPS −46.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T03:49:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-21T10:52:14+00:00	28.8%	3.7%	19.1%	14.2%	1.3%
2026-09-21T11:37:54+00:00	28.8%	1.9%	19.1%	14.2%	1.3%
2026-09-21T12:23:02+00:00	28.8%	1.9%	19.1%	14.2%	1.3%
2026-09-21T13:08:07+00:00	28.8%	1.9%	19.1%	14.2%	1.3%
2026-09-21T13:53:13+00:00	14.8%	1.9%	19.1%	14.2%	1.3%
2026-09-21T14:40:19+00:00	14.8%	1.9%	19.2%	14.3%	1.3%
2026-09-21T15:25:32+00:00	14.8%	1.8%	19.2%	14.3%	1.3%
2026-09-21T16:10:47+00:00	14.8%	1.8%	19.2%	14.3%	1.3%
2026-09-21T16:55:52+00:00	14.8%	1.8%	19.2%	14.3%	24.3%
2026-09-21T17:40:58+00:00	14.8%	1.8%	19.2%	14.3%	24.3%
2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:00	14.8%	1.8%	19.2%	14.3%	24.3%
2026-09-21T19:11:12+00:00	14.8%	1.8%	19.2%	14.3%	24.3%
2026-09-21T19:56:20+00:00	7.3%	1.8%	19.2%	36.9%	24.3%
2026-09-21T20:41:31+00:00	7.3%	1.8%	19.2%	36.9%	24.3%
2026-09-21T21:26:37+00:00	7.3%	1.8%	19.2%	36.9%	24.3%
2026-09-21T22:11:43+00:00	7.3%	1.8%	19.2%	36.9%	24.3%
2026-09-21T22:56:48+00:00	7.3%	1.8%	19.2%	36.9%	24.3%
2026-09-21T23:41:53+00:00	7.2%	1.5%	19.2%	36.9%	24.3%
2026-09-22T00:26:58+00:00	7.2%	1.5%	19.2%	36.9%	24.3%
2026-09-22T01:12:07+00:00	7.2%	1.5%	19.2%	36.9%	24.3%
2026-09-22T01:57:13+00:00	5.8%	1.5%	19.2%	36.9%	24.3%
2026-09-22T02:42:29+00:00	5.8%	1.5%	19.2%	36.9%	24.3%
2026-09-22T03:27:45+00:00	5.8%	1.5%	19.2%	36.9%	24.3%
2026-09-22T04:12:50+00:00	5.8%	1.5%	19.2%	36.9%	24.3%
2026-09-22T04:57:59+00:00	5.8%	1.5%	19.2%	36.9%	35.3%
2026-09-22T05:43:25+00:00	5.8%	1.5%	19.2%	36.9%	35.3%
2026-09-22T06:28:41+00:00	5.8%	1.5%	19.2%	36.9%	35.3%
2026-09-22T07:13:49+00:00	5.8%	1.5%	19.2%	36.9%	35.3%
2026-09-22T07:59:13+00:00	11.1%	1.5%	19.2%	30.4%	35.3%
2026-09-22T08:44:41+00:00	11.1%	1.5%	19.2%	30.4%	35.3%
2026-09-22T09:29:46+00:00	11.1%	1.5%	19.2%	30.4%	35.3%
2026-09-22T10:14:52+00:00	11.1%	1.5%	19.2%	30.4%	35.3%
2026-09-22T11:00:02+00:00	11.1%	7.5%	19.2%	30.4%	35.3%
2026-09-22T11:45:11+00:00	11.1%	7.5%	19.2%	30.4%	35.3%
2026-09-22T12:30:16+00:00	11.1%	7.5%	19.2%	30.4%	35.3%
2026-09-22T13:15:21+00:00	11.1%	7.5%	19.2%	30.4%	35.3%
2026-09-22T14:00:29+00:00	5.3%	7.5%	19.2%	30.4%	35.3%
2026-09-22T14:47:14+00:00	5.3%	7.5%	19.2%	30.5%	35.3%
2026-09-22T15:32:25+00:00	5.3%	7.2%	19.2%	30.5%	35.3%
2026-09-22T16:17:41+00:00	5.3%	7.2%	19.2%	30.5%	35.3%
2026-09-22T17:02:46+00:00	5.3%	7.2%	19.2%	30.5%	14.4%
2026-09-22T17:47:52+00:00	5.3%	7.2%	19.2%	30.5%	14.4%
2026-09-22T18:32:57+00:00	5.3%	7.2%	19.2%	30.5%	14.4%
2026-09-22T19:18:06+00:00	5.3%	7.2%	19.2%	30.5%	14.4%
2026-09-22T20:03:11+00:00	3.0%	7.2%	19.2%	30.5%	14.4%
2026-09-22T20:48:16+00:00	3.0%	7.2%	19.2%	30.5%	14.4%
2026-09-22T21:33:24+00:00	3.0%	7.2%	19.2%	30.5%	14.4%
2026-09-22T22:18:32+00:00	3.0%	7.2%	19.2%	30.5%	14.4%
2026-09-22T23:03:39+00:00	3.0%	7.2%	19.2%	30.5%	14.4%
2026-09-22T23:48:45+00:00	3.0%	6.5%	11.1%	30.4%	14.4%
2026-09-23T00:33:51+00:00	3.0%	6.5%	11.1%	30.4%	14.4%
2026-09-23T01:18:59+00:00	3.0%	6.5%	11.1%	30.4%	14.4%
2026-09-23T02:04:05+00:00	2.5%	6.5%	11.1%	30.4%	14.4%
2026-09-23T02:49:19+00:00	2.5%	6.5%	11.1%	30.4%	14.4%
2026-09-23T03:34:37+00:00	2.5%	6.5%	11.1%	30.4%	14.4%
2026-09-23T04:19:44+00:00	2.5%	6.5%	11.1%	30.4%	14.4%
2026-09-23T05:04:54+00:00	2.5%	6.5%	11.1%	37.0%	11.0%
2026-09-23T05:50:05+00:00	2.5%	6.5%	11.1%	37.0%	11.0%
2026-09-23T06:35:10+00:00	2.5%	6.5%	11.1%	37.0%	11.0%
2026-09-23T07:20:18+00:00	2.5%	6.5%	11.1%	37.0%	11.0%
2026-09-23T08:05:44+00:00	10.6%	6.5%	11.1%	7.0%	11.0%
2026-09-23T08:51:12+00:00	10.6%	6.5%	11.1%	7.0%	11.0%
2026-09-23T09:36:17+00:00	10.6%	6.5%	11.1%	7.0%	11.0%
2026-09-23T10:21:21+00:00	10.6%	6.5%	11.1%	7.0%	11.0%
2026-09-23T11:06:29+00:00	10.6%	1.5%	12.1%	7.0%	11.0%
2026-09-23T11:51:39+00:00	10.6%	1.5%	12.1%	7.0%	11.0%
2026-09-23T12:36:44+00:00	10.6%	1.5%	12.1%	7.0%	11.0%
2026-09-23T13:21:49+00:00	10.6%	1.5%	12.1%	7.0%	11.0%
2026-09-23T14:09:06+00:00	13.8%	1.5%	12.2%	7.0%	10.6%
2026-09-23T14:54:19+00:00	13.8%	1.5%	12.2%	7.0%	10.6%
2026-09-23T15:39:31+00:00	13.8%	1.5%	12.2%	7.0%	10.6%
2026-09-23T16:24:38+00:00	13.8%	1.5%	12.2%	7.0%	10.6%
2026-09-23T17:09:48+00:00	13.8%	1.5%	13.7%	7.0%	22.1%
2026-09-23T17:54:55+00:00	13.8%	1.5%	13.7%	7.0%	22.1%
2026-09-23T18:40:01+00:00	13.8%	1.5%	13.7%	7.0%	22.1%
2026-09-23T19:25:12+00:00	8.5%	1.5%	13.7%	7.2%	22.1%
2026-09-23T20:10:19+00:00	8.5%	1.5%	13.7%	7.2%	22.1%
2026-09-23T20:55:25+00:00	8.5%	1.5%	13.7%	7.2%	22.1%
2026-09-23T21:40:31+00:00	8.5%	1.5%	13.7%	7.2%	22.1%
2026-09-23T22:25:37+00:00	8.5%	1.5%	13.7%	7.2%	22.1%
2026-09-23T23:10:43+00:00	8.5%	1.6%	12.7%	7.2%	22.1%
2026-09-23T23:55:49+00:00	8.5%	1.6%	12.7%	7.2%	22.1%
2026-09-24T00:40:55+00:00	8.5%	1.6%	12.7%	7.2%	22.1%
2026-09-24T01:26:06+00:00	8.5%	1.6%	12.7%	7.2%	22.1%
2026-09-24T02:11:12+00:00	5.8%	1.6%	12.7%	7.2%	22.1%
2026-09-24T02:56:32+00:00	5.8%	1.6%	12.7%	7.2%	22.1%
2026-09-24T03:41:54+00:00	5.8%	1.6%	12.7%	7.2%	22.1%
2026-09-24T04:27:00+00:00	5.8%	1.6%	12.7%	7.2%	22.1%
2026-09-24T05:12:06+00:00	5.8%	1.6%	10.8%	7.2%	3.6%
2026-09-24T05:57:15+00:00	5.8%	1.6%	10.8%	7.2%	3.6%
2026-09-24T06:42:26+00:00	5.8%	1.6%	10.8%	7.2%	3.6%
2026-09-24T07:27:54+00:00	5.8%	1.6%	10.8%	7.2%	3.6%
2026-09-24T08:13:26+00:00	7.7%	1.6%	10.8%	3.0%	3.6%
2026-09-24T08:58:37+00:00	7.7%	1.6%	10.8%	3.0%	3.6%
2026-09-24T09:43:42+00:00	7.7%	1.6%	10.8%	3.0%	3.6%
2026-09-24T10:28:47+00:00	7.7%	1.6%	10.8%	3.0%	3.6%
2026-09-24T11:13:52+00:00	7.7%	1.1%	11.6%	3.0%	3.6%
2026-09-24T11:58:58+00:00	7.7%	1.1%	11.6%	3.0%	3.6%
2026-09-24T12:44:03+00:00	7.7%	1.1%	11.6%	3.0%	3.6%
2026-09-24T13:29:18+00:00	7.7%	1.1%	11.6%	3.0%	3.6%
2026-09-24T14:16:42+00:00	5.1%	1.2%	11.6%	3.0%	3.6%
2026-09-24T15:01:54+00:00	5.1%	1.2%	11.6%	3.0%	3.6%
2026-09-24T15:47:18+00:00	5.1%	1.1%	11.6%	3.0%	3.6%
2026-09-24T16:32:28+00:00	5.1%	1.1%	11.6%	3.0%	3.6%
2026-09-24T17:17:33+00:00	5.1%	1.1%	13.2%	3.0%	3.6%
2026-09-24T18:02:39+00:00	5.1%	1.1%	13.2%	3.0%	3.6%
2026-09-24T18:47:44+00:00	5.1%	1.1%	13.2%	3.0%	3.6%
2026-09-24T19:32:54+00:00	2.5%	1.1%	13.2%	3.0%	2.3%
2026-09-24T20:18:02+00:00	2.5%	1.1%	13.2%	3.0%	2.3%
2026-09-24T21:03:07+00:00	2.5%	1.1%	13.2%	3.0%	2.3%
2026-09-24T21:48:12+00:00	2.5%	1.1%	13.2%	3.0%	2.3%
2026-09-24T22:33:18+00:00	2.5%	1.1%	13.2%	9.5%	2.3%
2026-09-24T23:18:25+00:00	2.5%	1.2%	11.6%	9.5%	2.3%
2026-09-25T00:03:30+00:00	2.5%	1.2%	11.6%	9.5%	2.3%
2026-09-25T00:48:44+00:00	2.5%	1.2%	11.6%	9.5%	2.3%
2026-09-25T01:33:52+00:00	3.0%	1.2%	11.6%	9.5%	2.3%
2026-09-25T02:18:59+00:00	3.0%	1.2%	11.6%	9.5%	2.3%
2026-09-25T03:04:20+00:00	3.0%	1.2%	11.6%	9.5%	2.3%
2026-09-25T03:49:45+00:00	3.0%	1.2%	11.6%	9.5%	2.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	12%	74.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	72.9°F	5.0°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
National Blend	8%	72.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	70.8°F	4.6°F	2026-09-24 18:00	Pending
ICON	2%	70.1°F	4.7°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-25 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	71.5°F	3.5°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260928-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 21 · 10:52 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗