KMSP / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Sep 28 · 14:01 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

79%

53%

32%

15%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.3¢Risks 55.30u

ICONNO 44.7¢Risks 44.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.70u · ICON −44.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	47.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	37.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	25.2%	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	95.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	53.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	73.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	71.6%	—	—	54.5%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	54.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	33.0%	33.0%	—	—	52.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	42.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	17.1%	93.5%	0.3%	—	42.3%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	24.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	35.7%	31.7%	81.1%	—	27.9%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	23.4%	18.4%	56.8%	—	29.6%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	33.0%	10.0%	19.5%	—	34.5%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	20.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	46.7%	36.9%	30.8%	67.0%	—	50.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	44.0%	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	33.8%	47.4%	69.3%	48.2%	—	62.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	27.1%	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	16.6%	20.3%	3.2%	86.7%	—	58.2%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	42.5%	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	42.3%	56.8%	85.3%	—	43.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	26.5%	11.9%	—	—	11.9%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	33.0%	84.3%	35.9%	—	33.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	86.8%	19.0%	—	—	29.8%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	64.9%	27.3%	61.8%	—	40.3%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	37.8%	47.8%	27.6%	—	27.6%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	15.3%	28.0%	27.0%	—	35.2%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	41.6%	45.2%	23.4%	—	21.6%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	23.6%	45.0%	21.7%	36.5%	23.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	20.0%	39.8%	21.9%	—	23.8%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	27.3%	25.1%	22.0%	40.7%	22.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	12.4%	15.6%	13.9%	—	19.1%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	34.5%	41.4%	28.0%	47.1%	31.8%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	27.2%	29.8%	48.5%	20.2%	—	45.5%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	14.2%	15.2%	54.7%	18.1%	63.9%	15.2%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	3.4%	5.8%	16.0%	—	13.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	74.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	79%	71.1°F	3.2°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	70.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-28 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	53%	68.8°F	4.0°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	66.7°F	3.7°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
ICON	15%	64.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260929-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 26 · 03:11 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗