KMSP / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 25 · 04:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

16%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 8.7¢Risks 4.35u

EPSNO 91.3¢Risks 45.65u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.65u · EPS −45.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	—	—	—	7.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	1.4%	—	—	4.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	6.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	14.4%	—	—	6.5%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	1.6%	1.6%	—	—	5.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.3%	40.3%	0.0%	—	2.5%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.4%	1.0%	17.0%	—	0.8%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.4%	0.2%	4.1%	—	0.7%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.7%	0.1%	0.2%	—	0.8%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.8%	0.5%	4.9%	—	1.9%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.1%	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.2%	4.5%	1.2%	—	2.9%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	11.5%	—	1.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	1.2%	8.2%	—	0.4%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	5.8%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.2%	0.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.9%	0.0%	0.7%	—	0.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	16%	72.7°F	5.8°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	73.6°F	4.2°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	70.6°F	5.0°F	2026-09-24 18:00	Pending
ICON	3%	69.5°F	4.7°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	71.5°F	3.2°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	66.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-25 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260929-TMAX-GE79
Opened Sep 22 · 07:59 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗