KMSP / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 25 · 04:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

16%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 8.7¢Risks 4.35u

EPSNO 91.3¢Risks 45.65u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.65u · EPS −45.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T04:34:51+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-22T07:59:14+00:00	17.0%	7.7%	24.3%	27.3%	19.2%
2026-09-22T08:44:41+00:00	17.0%	7.7%	24.3%	27.3%	19.2%
2026-09-22T09:29:46+00:00	17.0%	7.7%	24.3%	27.3%	19.2%
2026-09-22T10:14:52+00:00	17.0%	7.7%	24.3%	27.3%	19.2%
2026-09-22T11:00:02+00:00	17.0%	12.5%	24.3%	27.3%	19.2%
2026-09-22T11:45:11+00:00	17.0%	12.5%	24.3%	27.3%	19.2%
2026-09-22T12:30:16+00:00	17.0%	12.5%	24.3%	27.3%	19.2%
2026-09-22T13:15:21+00:00	17.0%	12.5%	24.3%	27.3%	19.2%
2026-09-22T14:00:29+00:00	7.5%	12.5%	24.3%	27.3%	19.2%
2026-09-22T14:47:14+00:00	7.5%	12.5%	24.4%	27.4%	19.2%
2026-09-22T15:32:25+00:00	7.5%	13.0%	24.4%	27.4%	19.2%
2026-09-22T16:17:41+00:00	7.5%	13.0%	24.4%	27.4%	19.2%
2026-09-22T17:02:46+00:00	7.5%	13.0%	24.4%	27.4%	12.4%
2026-09-22T17:47:52+00:00	7.5%	13.0%	24.4%	27.4%	12.4%
2026-09-22T18:32:57+00:00	7.5%	13.0%	24.4%	27.4%	12.4%
2026-09-22T19:18:06+00:00	7.5%	13.0%	24.4%	27.4%	12.4%
2026-09-22T20:03:11+00:00	3.5%	13.0%	24.4%	27.4%	12.4%
2026-09-22T20:48:16+00:00	3.5%	13.0%	24.4%	27.4%	12.4%
2026-09-22T21:33:24+00:00	3.5%	13.0%	24.4%	27.4%	12.4%
2026-09-22T22:18:32+00:00	3.5%	13.0%	24.4%	27.4%	12.4%
2026-09-22T23:03:39+00:00	3.5%	13.0%	24.4%	27.4%	12.4%
2026-09-22T23:48:45+00:00	3.5%	11.9%	5.3%	27.4%	12.4%
2026-09-23T00:33:51+00:00	3.5%	11.9%	5.3%	27.4%	12.4%
2026-09-23T01:18:59+00:00	3.5%	11.9%	5.3%	27.4%	12.4%
2026-09-23T02:04:05+00:00	1.9%	11.9%	5.3%	27.4%	12.4%
2026-09-23T02:49:19+00:00	1.9%	11.9%	5.3%	27.4%	12.4%
2026-09-23T03:34:37+00:00	1.9%	11.9%	5.3%	27.4%	12.4%
2026-09-23T04:19:44+00:00	1.9%	11.9%	5.3%	27.4%	12.4%
2026-09-23T05:04:54+00:00	1.9%	11.9%	5.3%	3.1%	10.0%
2026-09-23T05:50:05+00:00	1.9%	11.9%	5.3%	3.1%	10.0%
2026-09-23T06:35:10+00:00	1.9%	11.9%	5.3%	3.1%	10.0%
2026-09-23T07:20:18+00:00	1.9%	11.9%	5.3%	3.1%	10.0%
2026-09-23T08:05:44+00:00	0.8%	11.9%	5.3%	3.1%	10.0%
2026-09-23T08:51:12+00:00	0.8%	11.9%	5.3%	3.1%	10.0%
2026-09-23T09:36:17+00:00	0.8%	11.9%	5.3%	3.1%	10.0%
2026-09-23T10:21:21+00:00	0.8%	11.9%	5.3%	3.1%	10.0%
2026-09-23T23:10:43+00:00	2.3%	3.1%	6.7%	4.3%	6.1%
2026-09-23T23:55:49+00:00	2.3%	3.1%	6.7%	4.3%	6.1%
2026-09-24T00:40:55+00:00	2.3%	3.1%	6.7%	4.3%	6.1%
2026-09-24T01:26:06+00:00	2.3%	3.1%	6.7%	4.3%	6.1%
2026-09-24T02:11:12+00:00	4.6%	3.1%	6.7%	4.3%	6.1%
2026-09-24T05:12:06+00:00	4.6%	3.1%	9.6%	4.3%	4.4%
2026-09-24T05:57:15+00:00	4.6%	3.1%	9.6%	4.3%	4.4%
2026-09-24T06:42:26+00:00	4.6%	3.1%	9.6%	4.3%	4.4%
2026-09-24T07:27:54+00:00	4.6%	3.1%	9.6%	4.3%	4.4%
2026-09-24T08:13:26+00:00	3.5%	3.1%	9.6%	3.2%	4.4%
2026-09-24T08:58:37+00:00	3.5%	3.1%	9.6%	3.2%	4.4%
2026-09-24T09:43:42+00:00	3.5%	3.1%	9.6%	3.2%	4.4%
2026-09-24T10:28:47+00:00	3.5%	3.1%	9.6%	3.2%	4.4%
2026-09-24T19:32:54+00:00	10.2%	1.6%	6.1%	3.2%	5.4%
2026-09-24T20:18:02+00:00	10.2%	1.6%	6.1%	3.2%	5.4%
2026-09-24T21:03:07+00:00	10.2%	1.6%	6.1%	3.2%	5.4%
2026-09-24T21:48:12+00:00	10.2%	1.6%	6.1%	3.2%	5.4%
2026-09-24T22:33:18+00:00	10.2%	1.6%	6.1%	16.0%	5.4%
2026-09-24T23:18:25+00:00	10.2%	1.4%	12.2%	16.0%	5.4%
2026-09-25T00:03:30+00:00	10.2%	1.4%	12.2%	16.0%	5.4%
2026-09-25T00:48:44+00:00	10.2%	1.4%	12.2%	16.0%	5.4%
2026-09-25T01:33:52+00:00	5.5%	1.4%	12.2%	16.0%	5.4%
2026-09-25T02:18:59+00:00	5.5%	1.4%	12.2%	16.0%	5.4%
2026-09-25T03:04:20+00:00	5.5%	1.4%	12.2%	16.0%	5.4%
2026-09-25T03:49:45+00:00	5.5%	1.4%	12.2%	16.0%	5.4%
2026-09-25T04:34:51+00:00	5.5%	1.4%	12.2%	16.0%	2.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	16%	72.7°F	5.8°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	73.6°F	4.2°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	70.6°F	5.0°F	2026-09-24 18:00	Pending
ICON	3%	69.5°F	4.7°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	71.5°F	3.2°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	66.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-25 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260929-TMAX-GE79
Opened Sep 22 · 07:59 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗