KMSP / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Sep 23 · 10:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

80%

67%

33%

23%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.1¢Risks 53.10u

ICONNO 46.9¢Risks 46.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.90u · ICON −46.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	52.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	8.8%	—	—	58.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	38.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	76.3%	—	—	68.7%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	89.6%	—	7.1%	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	75.4%	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	2.9%	2.1%	—	—	40.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	28.6%	60.4%	33.0%	—	47.9%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	50.0%	54.4%	84.4%	—	47.8%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	66.3%	56.1%	90.7%	62.0%	—	72.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	80.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	64.8%	93.3%	50.8%	64.1%	—	83.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	94.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	80.5%	79.3%	83.8%	48.3%	—	86.2%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	94.4%	99.2%	97.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	70.9%	99.9%	94.1%	—	91.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	68.2%	98.8%	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	79.7%	99.5%	99.9%	85.6%	—	94.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	98.6%	98.7%	—	—	92.6%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	86.4%	96.5%	53.9%	74.5%	—	93.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	89.0%	98.5%	59.9%	—	—	28.2%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	83.0%	92.2%	52.1%	86.1%	—	91.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	99.8%	58.4%	—	—	95.3%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	95.5%	99.3%	98.1%	98.7%	70.8%	97.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	95.8%	99.6%	99.3%	42.2%	—	97.6%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	98.1%	99.5%	99.8%	96.7%	94.6%	98.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	98.1%	99.7%	99.9%	99.2%	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	99.1%	99.9%	99.9%	99.5%	96.5%	99.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	99.5%	100.0%	100.0%	99.7%	—	100.0%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	99.6%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	99.7%	100.0%	100.0%	99.7%	—	100.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	92.1%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	83%	70.4°F	5.2°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	69.8°F	5.2°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	67%	67.9°F	5.6°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	66.0°F	6.5°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	62.7°F	6.3°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
ICON	23%	58.4°F	9.8°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260930-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 23 · 08:05 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗