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KMSP / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Sep 23 · 10:21 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
83%
EPS
80%
AIFS
67%
HRES
33%
ICON
23%
Consensus
63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 53.1¢Risks 53.10u
VS
ICONNO 46.9¢Risks 46.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.90u · ICON −46.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 66.7% · 2026-09-23T08:05:44+00:00AIFS Single: 66.7% · 2026-09-23T08:51:12+00:00AIFS Single: 66.7% · 2026-09-23T09:36:17+00:00AIFS Single: 66.7% · 2026-09-23T10:21:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.7% · 2026-09-23T08:05:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.7% · 2026-09-23T08:51:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.7% · 2026-09-23T09:36:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.7% · 2026-09-23T10:21:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-09-23T08:05:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-09-23T08:51:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-09-23T09:36:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-09-23T10:21:21+00:00IFS HRES: 32.9% · 2026-09-23T08:05:44+00:00IFS HRES: 32.9% · 2026-09-23T08:51:12+00:00IFS HRES: 32.9% · 2026-09-23T09:36:17+00:00IFS HRES: 32.9% · 2026-09-23T10:21:21+00:00ICON: 23.4% · 2026-09-23T08:05:44+00:00ICON: 23.4% · 2026-09-23T08:51:12+00:00ICON: 23.4% · 2026-09-23T09:36:17+00:00ICON: 23.4% · 2026-09-23T10:21:21+00:0009-23 08:0509-23 09:3609-23 10:21
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-23T10:21:21+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-23T08:05:44+00:0066.7%79.7%82.8%32.9%23.4%
2026-09-23T08:51:12+00:0066.7%79.7%82.8%32.9%23.4%
2026-09-23T09:36:17+00:0066.7%79.7%82.8%32.9%23.4%
2026-09-23T10:21:21+00:0066.7%79.7%82.8%32.9%23.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 283%70.4°F5.2°F2026-09-22 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble80%69.8°F5.2°F2026-09-22 00:00Pending
AIFS Single67%67.9°F5.6°F2026-09-23 00:00Pending
National Blend53%66.0°F6.5°F2026-09-23 00:00Pending
IFS HRES33%62.7°F6.3°F2026-09-23 00:00Pending
ICON23%58.4°F9.8°F2026-09-23 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260930-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 23 · 08:05 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗