WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KMSP / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Sep 26 · 02:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
97%
WN2
94%
EPS
87%
HRES
83%
ICON
76%
Consensus
85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 86.4¢Risks 86.40u
VS
ICONNO 13.6¢Risks 13.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +13.60u · ICON −13.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 67.9% · 2026-09-25T18:08:50+00:00AIFS Single: 67.9% · 2026-09-25T18:54:07+00:00AIFS Single: 89.2% · 2026-09-25T19:39:41+00:00AIFS Single: 89.2% · 2026-09-25T20:25:17+00:00AIFS Single: 89.2% · 2026-09-25T21:10:23+00:00AIFS Single: 89.2% · 2026-09-25T21:55:28+00:00AIFS Single: 89.2% · 2026-09-25T22:40:33+00:00AIFS Single: 89.2% · 2026-09-25T23:25:38+00:00AIFS Single: 89.2% · 2026-09-26T00:10:44+00:00AIFS Single: 89.2% · 2026-09-26T00:55:54+00:00AIFS Single: 96.9% · 2026-09-26T01:41:05+00:00AIFS Single: 96.9% · 2026-09-26T02:26:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.1% · 2026-09-25T18:08:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.1% · 2026-09-25T18:54:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.1% · 2026-09-25T19:39:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.1% · 2026-09-25T20:25:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.1% · 2026-09-25T21:10:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.1% · 2026-09-25T21:55:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.1% · 2026-09-25T22:40:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.7% · 2026-09-25T23:25:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.7% · 2026-09-26T00:10:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.7% · 2026-09-26T00:55:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.7% · 2026-09-26T01:41:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.7% · 2026-09-26T02:26:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.5% · 2026-09-25T18:08:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.5% · 2026-09-25T18:54:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.5% · 2026-09-25T19:39:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.5% · 2026-09-25T20:25:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.5% · 2026-09-25T21:10:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.5% · 2026-09-25T21:55:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.5% · 2026-09-25T22:40:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.6% · 2026-09-25T23:25:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.6% · 2026-09-26T00:10:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.6% · 2026-09-26T00:55:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.6% · 2026-09-26T01:41:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.6% · 2026-09-26T02:26:25+00:00IFS HRES: 82.1% · 2026-09-25T18:08:50+00:00IFS HRES: 82.1% · 2026-09-25T18:54:07+00:00IFS HRES: 83.2% · 2026-09-25T19:39:41+00:00IFS HRES: 83.2% · 2026-09-25T20:25:17+00:00IFS HRES: 83.2% · 2026-09-25T21:10:23+00:00IFS HRES: 83.2% · 2026-09-25T21:55:28+00:00IFS HRES: 83.2% · 2026-09-25T22:40:33+00:00IFS HRES: 83.2% · 2026-09-25T23:25:38+00:00IFS HRES: 83.2% · 2026-09-26T00:10:44+00:00IFS HRES: 83.2% · 2026-09-26T00:55:54+00:00IFS HRES: 83.2% · 2026-09-26T01:41:05+00:00IFS HRES: 83.2% · 2026-09-26T02:26:25+00:00ICON: 75.9% · 2026-09-25T18:08:50+00:00ICON: 75.9% · 2026-09-25T18:54:07+00:00ICON: 75.9% · 2026-09-25T19:39:41+00:00ICON: 75.9% · 2026-09-25T20:25:17+00:00ICON: 75.9% · 2026-09-25T21:10:23+00:00ICON: 75.9% · 2026-09-25T21:55:28+00:00ICON: 75.9% · 2026-09-25T22:40:33+00:00ICON: 75.9% · 2026-09-25T23:25:38+00:00ICON: 75.9% · 2026-09-26T00:10:44+00:00ICON: 75.9% · 2026-09-26T00:55:54+00:00ICON: 75.9% · 2026-09-26T01:41:05+00:00ICON: 75.9% · 2026-09-26T02:26:25+00:0009-25 18:0809-25 22:4009-26 02:26
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-26T02:26:25+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-25T18:08:50+00:0067.9%86.1%95.5%82.1%75.9%
2026-09-25T18:54:07+00:0067.9%86.1%95.5%82.1%75.9%
2026-09-25T19:39:41+00:0089.2%86.1%95.5%83.2%75.9%
2026-09-25T20:25:17+00:0089.2%86.1%95.5%83.2%75.9%
2026-09-25T21:10:23+00:0089.2%86.1%95.5%83.2%75.9%
2026-09-25T21:55:28+00:0089.2%86.1%95.5%83.2%75.9%
2026-09-25T22:40:33+00:0089.2%86.1%95.5%83.2%75.9%
2026-09-25T23:25:38+00:0089.2%86.7%93.6%83.2%75.9%
2026-09-26T00:10:44+00:0089.2%86.7%93.6%83.2%75.9%
2026-09-26T00:55:54+00:0089.2%86.7%93.6%83.2%75.9%
2026-09-26T01:41:05+00:0096.9%86.7%93.6%83.2%75.9%
2026-09-26T02:26:25+00:0096.9%86.7%93.6%83.2%75.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single97%76.7°F4.9°F2026-09-25 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 294%73.9°F4.2°F2026-09-25 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble87%71.5°F3.6°F2026-09-25 00:00Pending
IFS HRES83%73.1°F5.8°F2026-09-25 12:00Pending
ICON76%71.6°F5.8°F2026-09-25 12:00Pending
NWS forecast54%68.0°F5.1°F2026-09-25 17:00Pending
National Blend45%67.0°F4.4°F2026-09-25 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260930-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 25 · 18:08 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗