KMSP / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Sep 26 · 02:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

94%

87%

83%

76%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 86.4¢Risks 86.40u

ICONNO 13.6¢Risks 13.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +13.60u · ICON −13.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	37.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	5.1%	—	—	47.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	28.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	65.9%	—	—	57.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	3.8%	—	—	55.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	64.0%	—	—	46.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	1.3%	0.9%	—	—	27.7%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	45.1%	18.0%	46.5%	21.4%	—	34.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	45.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	37.8%	35.7%	39.9%	74.0%	—	33.7%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	51.5%	40.9%	82.6%	46.9%	—	58.3%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	68.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	49.2%	86.4%	35.2%	48.4%	—	71.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	88.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	65.5%	71.4%	32.2%	—	74.9%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	97.6%	93.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	54.4%	99.7%	86.9%	—	81.6%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	50.9%	96.4%	99.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	98.3%	99.7%	72.6%	—	86.7%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	61.2%	95.8%	96.0%	—	—	83.5%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	72.9%	90.6%	34.8%	56.8%	—	84.7%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	76.6%	95.1%	40.1%	—	—	14.0%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	81.7%	32.1%	71.5%	—	80.3%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	78.7%	99.0%	37.5%	—	—	87.4%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	87.5%	97.2%	93.8%	95.3%	50.0%	91.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	98.0%	97.1%	22.3%	—	92.1%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	93.2%	97.5%	99.0%	89.5%	84.7%	95.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	93.0%	98.5%	99.3%	96.5%	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	95.7%	99.4%	99.5%	97.4%	88.2%	99.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	97.4%	99.9%	99.9%	98.2%	—	99.6%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	100.0%	100.0%	99.6%	99.6%	99.6%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	98.5%	100.0%	100.0%	99.3%	—	99.9%
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	98.9%	99.9%	100.0%	99.8%	99.8%	99.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	97.8%	100.0%	100.0%	97.6%	—	99.8%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	97.8%	99.8%	99.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	71.9%	99.9%	100.0%	99.2%	—	99.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	97%	76.7°F	4.9°F	2026-09-25 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	94%	73.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	87%	71.5°F	3.6°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	83%	73.1°F	5.8°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
ICON	76%	71.6°F	5.8°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-25 17:00	Pending
National Blend	45%	67.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260930-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 25 · 18:08 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗