KMSP / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Sep 26 · 13:44 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

92%

80%

76%

57%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 75.6¢Risks 75.60u

ICONNO 24.4¢Risks 24.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.40u · ICON −24.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	36.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	3.8%	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	60.2%	—	—	51.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	2.6%	—	—	48.7%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	70.2%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	—	57.8%	—	—	39.7%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	7.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	23.3%	0.8%	0.5%	—	—	22.3%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	13.7%	39.6%	16.6%	—	28.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	29.1%	33.0%	67.7%	—	27.2%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	33.7%	77.2%	39.4%	—	50.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	60.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	81.6%	28.1%	40.5%	—	64.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	83.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	57.5%	63.9%	25.1%	—	67.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	82.7%	96.1%	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	47.4%	45.6%	99.4%	81.6%	—	75.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	94.3%	98.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	55.5%	97.1%	99.3%	64.4%	—	81.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	51.9%	93.3%	93.6%	—	—	76.9%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	85.8%	26.3%	47.1%	—	78.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	92.0%	30.8%	—	—	9.2%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	74.1%	23.5%	62.2%	—	72.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	70.2%	98.1%	27.9%	—	—	81.0%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	81.0%	95.0%	89.6%	91.9%	39.2%	85.7%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	96.2%	94.6%	14.8%	—	87.1%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	88.4%	95.2%	98.0%	83.2%	76.7%	91.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	96.9%	98.4%	93.4%	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	92.0%	98.7%	98.9%	94.8%	80.9%	98.8%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	94.7%	99.6%	99.7%	96.3%	—	99.0%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	94.7%	99.9%	100.0%	99.1%	99.0%	98.9%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	96.5%	99.9%	100.0%	98.2%	—	99.6%
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	97.3%	99.8%	100.0%	99.5%	99.4%	99.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	94.8%	99.9%	100.0%	94.4%	—	99.2%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	99.6%	100.0%	100.0%	94.8%	99.4%	99.7%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	99.6%	100.0%	97.7%	—	99.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	74.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	92%	75.6°F	5.0°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	71.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	71.8°F	4.6°F	2026-09-26 06:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	70.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-26 06:00	Pending
ICON	57%	69.3°F	4.7°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-26 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260930-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 26 · 03:11 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗