WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KMSP / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Sep 26 · 13:44 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
94%
HRES
92%
EPS
80%
AIFS
76%
ICON
57%
Consensus
81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 75.6¢Risks 75.60u
VS
ICONNO 24.4¢Risks 24.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.40u · ICON −24.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 95.2% · 2026-09-26T03:11:45+00:00AIFS Single: 95.2% · 2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00AIFS Single: 95.2% · 2026-09-26T04:42:08+00:00AIFS Single: 95.2% · 2026-09-26T05:27:19+00:00AIFS Single: 95.2% · 2026-09-26T06:12:26+00:00AIFS Single: 95.2% · 2026-09-26T06:57:31+00:00AIFS Single: 80.0% · 2026-09-26T07:43:04+00:00AIFS Single: 80.0% · 2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:00AIFS Single: 80.0% · 2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:00AIFS Single: 80.0% · 2026-09-26T09:58:52+00:00AIFS Single: 80.0% · 2026-09-26T10:44:05+00:00AIFS Single: 80.0% · 2026-09-26T11:29:18+00:00AIFS Single: 80.0% · 2026-09-26T12:14:30+00:00AIFS Single: 80.0% · 2026-09-26T12:59:36+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-09-26T13:44:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.8% · 2026-09-26T03:11:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.8% · 2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.8% · 2026-09-26T04:42:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.8% · 2026-09-26T05:27:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.8% · 2026-09-26T06:12:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.8% · 2026-09-26T06:57:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.8% · 2026-09-26T07:43:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.8% · 2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.8% · 2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.8% · 2026-09-26T09:58:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.8% · 2026-09-26T10:44:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.9% · 2026-09-26T11:29:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.9% · 2026-09-26T12:14:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.9% · 2026-09-26T12:59:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.9% · 2026-09-26T13:44:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.1% · 2026-09-26T03:11:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.1% · 2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.1% · 2026-09-26T04:42:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.3% · 2026-09-26T05:27:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.3% · 2026-09-26T06:12:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.3% · 2026-09-26T06:57:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.3% · 2026-09-26T07:43:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.3% · 2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.3% · 2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.3% · 2026-09-26T09:58:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.3% · 2026-09-26T10:44:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.5% · 2026-09-26T11:29:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.5% · 2026-09-26T12:14:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.5% · 2026-09-26T12:59:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.5% · 2026-09-26T13:44:45+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-09-26T03:11:45+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-09-26T04:42:08+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-09-26T05:27:19+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-09-26T06:12:26+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-09-26T06:57:31+00:00IFS HRES: 92.1% · 2026-09-26T07:43:04+00:00IFS HRES: 92.1% · 2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:00IFS HRES: 92.1% · 2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:00IFS HRES: 92.1% · 2026-09-26T09:58:52+00:00IFS HRES: 92.1% · 2026-09-26T10:44:05+00:00IFS HRES: 92.1% · 2026-09-26T11:29:18+00:00IFS HRES: 92.1% · 2026-09-26T12:14:30+00:00IFS HRES: 92.1% · 2026-09-26T12:59:36+00:00IFS HRES: 92.1% · 2026-09-26T13:44:45+00:00ICON: 70.2% · 2026-09-26T03:11:45+00:00ICON: 70.2% · 2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-09-26T04:42:08+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-09-26T05:27:19+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-09-26T06:12:26+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-09-26T06:57:31+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-09-26T07:43:04+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-09-26T09:58:52+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-09-26T10:44:05+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-09-26T11:29:18+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-09-26T12:14:30+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-09-26T12:59:36+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-09-26T13:44:45+00:0009-26 03:1109-26 08:2809-26 13:44
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-26T13:44:45+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-26T03:11:45+00:0095.2%79.8%90.1%78.5%70.2%
2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:0095.2%79.8%90.1%78.5%70.2%
2026-09-26T04:42:08+00:0095.2%79.8%90.1%78.5%56.7%
2026-09-26T05:27:19+00:0095.2%79.8%91.3%78.5%56.7%
2026-09-26T06:12:26+00:0095.2%79.8%91.3%78.5%56.7%
2026-09-26T06:57:31+00:0095.2%79.8%91.3%78.5%56.7%
2026-09-26T07:43:04+00:0080.0%79.8%91.3%92.1%56.7%
2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:0080.0%79.8%91.3%92.1%56.7%
2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:0080.0%79.8%91.3%92.1%56.7%
2026-09-26T09:58:52+00:0080.0%79.8%91.3%92.1%56.7%
2026-09-26T10:44:05+00:0080.0%79.8%91.3%92.1%56.7%
2026-09-26T11:29:18+00:0080.0%79.9%94.5%92.1%56.7%
2026-09-26T12:14:30+00:0080.0%79.9%94.5%92.1%56.7%
2026-09-26T12:59:36+00:0080.0%79.9%94.5%92.1%56.7%
2026-09-26T13:44:45+00:0076.2%79.9%94.5%92.1%56.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 294%74.8°F3.9°F2026-09-26 00:00Pending
IFS HRES92%75.6°F5.0°F2026-09-26 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble80%71.8°F3.9°F2026-09-26 00:00Pending
AIFS Single76%71.8°F4.6°F2026-09-26 06:00Pending
National Blend67%70.0°F3.3°F2026-09-26 06:00Pending
ICON57%69.3°F4.7°F2026-09-26 00:00Pending
NWS forecast55%69.0°F4.5°F2026-09-26 02:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260930-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 26 · 03:11 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗