KMSP / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Sep 29 · 03:36 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

92%

86%

82%

68%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 83.0¢Risks 83.00u

EPSNO 17.0¢Risks 17.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +17.00u · EPS −17.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	23.5%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	26.3%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	1.9%	—	—	30.9%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	15.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	48.2%	—	—	39.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	—	1.2%	—	—	36.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	44.8%	—	—	27.8%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	0.3%	0.2%	—	—	13.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	7.4%	26.9%	9.3%	—	17.5%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	17.9%	21.0%	53.6%	—	16.5%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	28.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	21.1%	64.2%	25.8%	—	35.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	45.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	69.2%	16.4%	26.1%	—	48.4%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	42.5%	40.9%	47.5%	13.8%	—	51.7%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	69.7%	90.8%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	29.1%	98.0%	67.8%	—	59.6%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	87.0%	95.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	37.3%	92.4%	97.8%	46.3%	—	66.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	84.6%	85.2%	—	—	60.3%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	45.1%	72.1%	13.1%	28.7%	—	61.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	49.0%	81.7%	15.8%	—	—	3.4%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	55.1%	10.8%	41.8%	—	53.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	93.8%	13.2%	—	—	63.5%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	86.3%	76.2%	80.2%	20.6%	69.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	62.2%	88.8%	85.2%	5.4%	—	71.4%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	86.0%	92.8%	64.8%	55.8%	78.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	89.8%	93.8%	81.7%	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	78.3%	94.5%	95.1%	84.1%	59.9%	94.8%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	83.4%	97.9%	98.4%	87.2%	—	95.4%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	82.7%	99.0%	99.7%	95.4%	95.0%	94.7%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	98.9%	99.9%	91.9%	—	97.7%
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	88.5%	98.4%	100.0%	96.5%	96.3%	97.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	80.8%	98.7%	100.0%	79.8%	—	95.2%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	96.9%	99.4%	100.0%	79.7%	95.6%	97.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	25.4%	96.3%	100.0%	87.7%	—	94.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	77.6°F	3.5°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	76.5°F	4.2°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	75.0°F	4.1°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
ICON	82%	73.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	68%	72.2°F	3.6°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	70.9°F	3.2°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260930-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 26 · 14:32 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗