KMSP / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Sep 30 · 07:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

42%

40%

14%

10%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 28.5¢Risks 28.45u

ICONNO 71.5¢Risks 71.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +71.55u · ICON −71.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	5.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	10.3%	—	—	6.8%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	5.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	7.5%	—	—	2.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	0.2%	2.1%	0.3%	—	0.9%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.9%	1.1%	8.4%	—	0.7%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	1.0%	12.2%	1.5%	—	2.9%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	4.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	13.6%	0.5%	1.2%	—	5.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	2.8%	4.1%	0.3%	—	5.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	35.0%	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	1.1%	61.3%	9.7%	—	6.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	24.9%	43.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	33.9%	56.4%	2.6%	—	7.6%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	19.0%	19.6%	—	—	5.1%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	8.6%	0.1%	0.6%	—	4.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	13.5%	0.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	2.6%	0.1%	1.2%	—	2.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	27.9%	0.1%	—	—	3.8%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	13.7%	7.0%	9.0%	0.1%	4.7%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	14.8%	11.2%	0.0%	—	4.5%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	10.5%	19.1%	2.5%	1.4%	6.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	12.6%	19.1%	6.6%	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	18.2%	19.9%	6.7%	1.2%	19.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	29.1%	32.5%	7.2%	—	18.2%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	35.6%	52.7%	15.7%	14.9%	14.1%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	31.2%	59.7%	8.1%	—	21.1%
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	22.2%	74.4%	13.8%	13.0%	15.4%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	21.3%	68.9%	1.4%	—	8.6%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	26.3%	78.6%	1.0%	7.1%	11.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.3%	53.3%	1.6%	—	4.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	46%	78.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-29 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	42%	77.7°F	4.0°F	2026-09-29 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	77.5°F	3.7°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
National Blend	26%	77.1°F	2.2°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	25%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-30 04:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	74.9°F	3.3°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
ICON	10%	74.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260930-TMAX-GE79
Opened Sep 24 · 08:13 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗