KMSP / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Sep 25 · 17:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

98%

98%

95%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 97.0¢Risks 24.26u

EPSNO 3.0¢Risks 0.74u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +0.74u · EPS −0.74u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	74.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	6.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	83.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	77.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	47.1%	—	—	77.8%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	87.8%	—	90.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	—	—	—	72.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	83.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	72.0%	—	—	48.7%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	42.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	91.5%	—	—	57.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	95.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	0.9%	55.4%	—	—	69.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	97.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	94.6%	9.6%	—	76.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	88.0%	97.6%	91.0%	84.8%	—	81.6%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	97.3%	98.3%	28.3%	79.5%	—	81.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	75.8%	99.8%	88.1%	—	83.7%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	79.3%	98.6%	69.2%	—	76.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	64.2%	94.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	55.2%	75.2%	62.1%	—	68.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	68.2%	65.8%	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	77.7%	67.8%	63.6%	60.9%	—	57.3%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	68.2%	72.4%	62.1%	—	—	60.3%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	69.6%	73.7%	77.5%	83.5%	—	65.2%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	68.3%	70.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	68.8%	62.2%	78.8%	76.5%	—	63.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	69.3%	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	75.3%	94.1%	87.5%	—	69.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	77.7%	98.0%	88.2%	—	70.4%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	74.0%	79.3%	94.6%	93.9%	57.0%	68.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	77.5%	91.8%	92.2%	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	75.4%	75.4%	98.0%	92.5%	56.2%	74.4%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	72.0%	72.0%	97.4%	83.4%	—	52.6%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	79.0%	81.8%	95.7%	84.3%	33.1%	64.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	80.9%	76.8%	98.2%	90.8%	—	71.2%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	79.8%	76.6%	98.1%	89.8%	41.4%	72.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	85.6%	71.5%	98.5%	84.7%	—	71.5%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	73.7%	60.9%	97.1%	80.8%	53.2%	53.2%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	77.2%	95.1%	74.6%	—	66.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	>99%	78.9°F	6.4°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	74.9°F	5.3°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	98%	73.2°F	4.5°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
ICON	98%	77.7°F	6.9°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	95%	70.6°F	4.3°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	66.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	64.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-25 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261001-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 25 · 03:04 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗