KMSP / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Sep 28 · 02:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

65%

59%

45%

30%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 55.6¢Risks 55.60u

HRESNO 44.4¢Risks 44.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.40u · HRES −44.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	54.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	25.4%	—	—	57.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	75.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	63.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	48.1%	—	—	25.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	76.4%	—	—	32.4%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	85.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	0.1%	29.4%	—	—	43.3%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	81.6%	2.2%	—	50.7%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	16.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	89.4%	72.8%	61.6%	—	56.6%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	87.8%	91.3%	9.0%	52.3%	—	55.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	46.0%	97.8%	64.8%	—	57.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	49.2%	91.3%	36.9%	—	45.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	31.1%	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	22.8%	42.2%	28.4%	—	34.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	31.0%	24.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	32.2%	28.2%	25.9%	—	23.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	31.8%	36.1%	26.1%	—	—	24.6%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	36.6%	41.3%	50.0%	—	27.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	29.9%	31.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	23.5%	40.8%	37.8%	—	24.3%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	28.8%	48.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	34.1%	67.9%	52.2%	—	28.2%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	25.8%	35.7%	82.5%	52.2%	—	27.6%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	36.3%	66.9%	64.8%	16.0%	24.2%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	32.5%	57.2%	58.4%	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	28.7%	79.2%	57.4%	13.7%	27.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	23.8%	74.1%	37.3%	—	10.9%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	29.5%	33.1%	64.4%	36.8%	3.7%	16.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	30.0%	25.3%	75.8%	47.2%	—	20.1%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	23.4%	73.2%	42.8%	4.7%	19.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	17.2%	74.0%	31.1%	—	17.2%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	9.6%	62.4%	23.8%	6.6%	6.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	18.1%	50.0%	16.0%	—	10.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	82%	71.4°F	4.3°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	69.3°F	4.6°F	2026-09-27 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	59%	68.4°F	3.9°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-27 14:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	67.7°F	4.5°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending
ICON	45%	66.9°F	4.7°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	64.8°F	5.0°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261001-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 26 · 03:11 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗